Probably not many, at least not on a scale big enough to care, but that's not how contageons cause problems.
Evergrande is going to destroy their bond market, and their real estate market in one fell swoop. Home sales in China are already down 90% YOY, and there's about to be the biggest firesale on real estate in history in a market already oversupplied to the max and multiple times over. $1.5 million apartments in Beijing are going to be on sale for $150,000 and find no buyers. The debt is going to become toxic, because the bonds are going to be 10x assets on everything.
All property developers fail. All banks fail. All local governments default on their bond issuances. Napkin math already puts this at a default bigger than their GDP.
How many banks and firms WW are invested in China?
How many banks are invested in other banks, nationally and WW?
How many banks WW are invested in the same stocks - Big Tech?
Yep, and BlackRock holds >2% of RBC, Vanguard and its funds own >5%, BMO >5%
For BMO BlackRock holds >3%, Vanguard >5%, RBC >10%
Vanguard holds 8% of BlackRock.
And this is just one example and one scratch on the surface. Throw in the rest of the Canadian banks interconnectedness, BlackRock and Vanguards massive exposure to them all, and their massive ownership of big tech the Canadian banking system being collectively a top 10 investor in big tech.
Factor in that after 2008 Canadian banks were considered a safe investment because they provided liquidity to American banks, so American banks started holding larger amounts of Canadian banks, so did European banks.
Europe is in a similar situation.
Just pull up a chair, look at those stock tickers and enjoy some popcorn.
So how many American banks invested in Evergrande? Eh?
Probably not many, at least not on a scale big enough to care, but that's not how contageons cause problems.
Evergrande is going to destroy their bond market, and their real estate market in one fell swoop. Home sales in China are already down 90% YOY, and there's about to be the biggest firesale on real estate in history in a market already oversupplied to the max and multiple times over. $1.5 million apartments in Beijing are going to be on sale for $150,000 and find no buyers. The debt is going to become toxic, because the bonds are going to be 10x assets on everything.
All property developers fail. All banks fail. All local governments default on their bond issuances. Napkin math already puts this at a default bigger than their GDP.
How many banks and firms WW are invested in China?
How many banks are invested in other banks, nationally and WW?
How many banks WW are invested in the same stocks - Big Tech?
RED October.
Done in 30. Sorry, it's the second. 29.
Stop, men can't orgasm like women, back to back.
Yep, and BlackRock holds >2% of RBC, Vanguard and its funds own >5%, BMO >5%
For BMO BlackRock holds >3%, Vanguard >5%, RBC >10%
Vanguard holds 8% of BlackRock.
And this is just one example and one scratch on the surface. Throw in the rest of the Canadian banks interconnectedness, BlackRock and Vanguards massive exposure to them all, and their massive ownership of big tech the Canadian banking system being collectively a top 10 investor in big tech.
Factor in that after 2008 Canadian banks were considered a safe investment because they provided liquidity to American banks, so American banks started holding larger amounts of Canadian banks, so did European banks.
Europe is in a similar situation.
Just pull up a chair, look at those stock tickers and enjoy some popcorn.
IMO if chyna actually believed that evergrande was going to pay dividends they would have purposefully excluded Americans.
If it's the bigger catalyst to tendie exploration, then I'm perfectly happy with the whole thing collapsing.