Quantum Computing to end Crypto sooner than you think
(trendsandtrackrecords.com)
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Yes. But those heavily invested in Bitcoin will be taking losses they could have avoided.
So would anyone with anything protected by a private key or password.
Yes, absolutely. -- And anyone with a bank account or a credit card or who wants a functioning market for, well, food or anything else. It'll be a mess for awhile. Everything is tied into the banks and other big organizations that use cryptography to enable at least some semblance of security. Strong quantum computing will make today's hacking dangers look like the Good Times.
Pretty sure that if a majority of all crypto where stolen over night, the majority would switch to a fork named <coin> (quantum secure), which just like the name suggests is an upgraded version of the coin, with a quantum secure algorithm, conveniently forked just before the hack.
Then the quantum hackers can sit there with their worthless crypto which is no longer secure, and therefore worthless. Exchanges and banks are the big losers.
Well, OK.
Russians be emptying my E wallet from another dimension.
Are you saying they’ll hack through my passwords that end in 1234?
Doesn't quantum computing (and crypto mining) need a huge amount of electricity? We're in a grand solar minimum with electro-magnetic flares from the sun disrupting electrical systems.
Thanks. I would hope quantum technology uses sustainable energy or different energy otherwise what sets it apart from computers currently running large data sets of probabilities?
Thank you for that great answer and I have the same question. What is the added value if such a system is dependent on the quality of data? Claims are being made that there is a 'moral' dimension built into quantum systems after gaming world war scenarios showed the end of the world if the powers that be continued on this route. Quantum suggests the next step up to me so why not a world free of profiteering bankers?
2nd question is speculation on added value. What if the accurate result of a probable future showed only destruction, the final solution? Would a quantum financial system learn from mistakes made and use all that data, all the variables, to adjust the future scenario in favour of humanity? I am trying to understand the 'quantum' aspect. What makes it 'quantum'? At the moment it just ends up being a buzz word.
I dont trust bitcoin anyway. Gold/resource backed tokens of somekind is the best way imo. None of this fiat crap
If there was such a thing as a "resource backed" token tho. Most stuff is just Ponzi schemes or fractions of the resource reserve. If you wanna go for precious metals, go ahead, but stick to physical metal.
Crypto currencies are Ponzi schemes. As with all Ponzi's, to make the big bucks you have to get in early and get out before it all falls apart. Bitcoin has been maybe the most successful non-government Ponzi scheme ever devised, but its days are numbered.
A LOT of people are rooting for Bitcoin for very positive reasons, but the pro-freedom transformation that many hope Bitcoin will bring isn't going to happen -- the opposite, if anything. In particular if you're keeping much of your life savings in Crypto of any type, at least consider and keep tabs on the possibility that it could evaporate very quickly -- because it probably will.
True. Could. Fed notes absolutely positively will continue to diminish as they have for over 100 hundred years.
Pick your poison. Allocate across asset classes. Diversify within asset classes. Same as it ever was.
Totally agree about Fed notes; they've already gone from $20 for [almost] an ounce of gold to [Checks today's fix] $1751.10 for an ounce of gold -- since 1933. I remember 5 cent Cokes from the soda machines, and my first new car cost $4,000. I'm pretty sure Trump will do something to change the trajectory of this (or something even more drastic) but left as-is, FedFiat notes are on target to be worth roughly zero in most of our lifetimes.
Also agree about diversifying. Posted what I did because I see many people completely entranced by the magic of Bitcoin; there's certainly a lot being published that makes Bitcoin sound like an unstoppable winner. Maybe it is, but . . . it can't hurt to diversify one's thinking on the topic.
In a Ponzi scheme you'd invest money into something, then you get some sort of payout regularly. The whole idea is that the investment is too good to be true, like pension in a inflationary asset. Which is the biggest known Ponzi scheme most boomer still think isn't a scam.
The Ponzi scheme collapses once the number of investors doesn't invest enough to cover the cost of the payouts.
So, now it's your turn, exactly what sort of payout do you get with crypto? As far as I recall all you do is to exchange at current market rate, just like when you buy a house or a bunch of silver coins. Sure market value goes up and down all the time based on supply and demand.
But only an idiot would call a house or a car a Ponzi scheme, even if they both could be a terrible investment if you buy high and sell low. That's not the definition of a Ponzi scheme.
Yes, I know the definition of a Ponzi scheme, and yes, crypto isn't typical of such schemes -- but the underlying mechanism is the same. The "some sort of payout regularly" is not dividends but more like withdrawals or stock sales at "customer" chosen times [You could buy a "house or a car" with either withdrawals from Maddoff's con or by converting some of your Bitcoin to fiat]. You watch the daily price. As it goes up and up, other people get into the scheme; who doesn't want to invest in something going to the moon? And THAT is happening only because more and more people are getting on board; further, most new "customers" arrive looking for a future payout from the rising BC price. Will that continue indefinitely? Or will other factors increase Bitcoin's value? Possibly.
I don't see Bitcoin being widely used as a medium of [common] exchange right now, and for several reasons I don't expect to see that in the future either. What supports Bitcoin and other crypto? Bitcoin is just information; ones and zeros, the same bedrock as an .MP3 file. The promise of secure cryptography is intriguing but that not only assumes no easy way for others to decrypt but also assumes a connection to the internet and for that matter, a functioning internet [also, see links at bottom]. It also assumes enough people in the future willing to exchange something of value for the ones and zeros of Bitcoin (basically also true of fiat currency and anything else used as a store of value and a medium of exchange -- without people willing exchange something of value for X, then you've got nothing no matter how much X you have on hand).
With precious metals, the metal itself is highly useful in numerous industries (including many of today's high-tech industries) and has been used throughout the civilized world for thousands of years; a one-oz precious metal coin minted today and a one-ounce coin from 5,000 years ago have the same value (plus any collector value for the old coin). A person could outfit themselves with a nice set of clothing in ancient Rome for an ounce of metal and -- you can still do that today, despite precious metals no longer being used in our [corrupt fiat] currency system. On the other hand, there are plenty of downsides to physical money of whatever type, including metals. "Diversify" is almost always good advice.
The alleged security that underlies much of Bitcoin's appeal is less comprehensive, even aside from the coming quantum decryption issue [also regardless of a quantum ENcrypted version] than most believe:
https://www.wired.com/story/theres-no-good-reason-to-trust-blockchain-technology/
https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2021/09/i-am-not-satoshi-nakamoto.html
https://www.schneier.com/blog/about/
I didn't expect to make this reply so lengthy. Thanks for giving me a reason for writing it out.
Forgot to address your first question. I gave a partial answer in an earlier comment above:
But why do I say "you have to get in early" and so on? First, that's what we've seen; when something goes from less than $1 to tens of thousands of dollars, the Big Money gets made by the early adopters (or investors, if you will). That's not to say substantial profits can't be made later, but going from $1 to $30,000 per coin is WAY different from when the ride starts at $25,000.
And if crypto cannot be made to work as a replacement for "money" -- which is how it's being sold to the public -- and if Satoshi or whomever knew that, then it's a Ponzi scheme; later investors (or whatever you want to call them) are buying in hoping to get rich, money from those later investors IS making the earlier investors rich, and at some point it is fated to fall apart, leaving those who didn't get out early enough holding the bag. I believe this is the case with crypto.
Several factors are hindering crypto currencies and may end them. This post was about the quantum computing issue, but as you know China just recently banned crypto currencies and rumblings about regulating or banning or replacing independent crypto with government versions (yummy!) keep being tossed around. Further, and something quite foreseeable, the incredibly computation-intensive and communication-intensive nature of a large blockchain monetary system can slow transactions enough to become an issue and I believe WOULD become a nightmare if BC were to actually become a day-to-day method of transaction for most people. Right now, Bitcoin use in daily commerce is rare: I have NEVER observed a Bitcoin transaction at any type of store, anywhere. They happen, I'm sure, but I'm saying that for all the shopping my wife and I do, neither of us has ever seen a single person actually USE Bitcoin to make a purchase -- and transaction delays are ALREADY an issue.
I believe that these and perhaps other problems will prevent BitCoin and any other non-Government cryptocurrency from ever being viable for general use as currency. I could be wrong, but other than for certain specialized uses, I don't see crypto replacing today's "money." Government versions, of course, might be forced upon populations in many nations; considering the levels of tyranny we're seeing now, I expect that. I don't expect them to work well, even aside from the evil intent they'll be deployed with, but that won't deter the tyrants.
What underlying mechanism is the same? decentralized verifiable blockchains has never been used before, especially not in a Ponzi scheme type of application, same goes for linked lists and similar structures. As for the rest, the mechanism is identical to gold, you have x amount, a total supply known to man, y amount can be mined because of limitations in machinery and accessibility, a price set by supply and demand etc.. if crypto is a Ponzi scheme, then why isn't gold?
Just like crypto, and blockchains in particular. Hardware and software respectively. In a global EMP, or anything that disrupts the power grid or the internet neither of these assets will have any value based on "industrial use" as no industry will remain and buy them.
Encryption aside, what sort of verification would you propose? The compromised state of Bitcoin, i.e when one part manage to take control over the whole network ain't different from today's banking system. We'd be back to square one in terms of security, verification wise. Security wise in terms of encryption and simplicity we'd still be better off.
And even if Bitcoin could be considered compromised due to the ASIC miners, there's plenty of other coins which is ASIC resistant, Monero for instance, where the average Joe can still mine of GPU's, and reduce the risk of it's chain being compromised.
Silver is an antibiotic useful in many settings (including silverware, which is one reason the wealthy have long used actual silver utensils, and water purification, treatment of infection, etc.), and then there's coinage and jewelry, all of which kept silver valuable for thousands of years before James Clerk Maxwell began futzing around with electromagnetism. Several of the other many uses for silver would also be useful after TEOTWAWKI and in building back to levels of modern technology.
Much the same can be said for gold (although not the antibiotic effects): coinage, jewelry, and many other uses made gold valuable long before the Pyramids were built and will continue to do so long after you and I are gone.
I agree with you that blockchain itself can be useful in many areas, and at this point the security aspect is a strong attraction. And it may be that Bitcoin or other crytocurrencies will stand the test of time and even prevail. I wrote this post mainly because I see so many people pinning their hopes (and perhaps their life savings) on crypto without having considered the possible downsides -- there always ARE downsides, including of course for metals or any other investment class.
People who put all their eggs in the same basket are bound to lose at some point, I have some silverware and coins too, but never thought about using it in water purification, sounds interesting.
You're right: everything-in-one-basket works great until it doesn't.
We've got a gravity-feed Berkey unit -- stainless steel with ceramic filters filled with charcoal and silver; different filters are available. It's stunning what they can remove from your water.
[Not directly Q related but considering the number of posts here about Crypto, this seems worth posting]
Bitcoin’s Price After the First Quantum Attack
So what happens to the price of bitcoin if/when it becomes evident that quantum computers are powerful enough to run crypto-breaking algorithms? Its really not that complicated. Bitcoin, and the entire digital currency world, is based on trust and the security of private key signing. When that trust is gone, the value of bitcoin goes to zero, immediately.
Tik Tok – Bitcoin’s Days Are Numbered
The probability of breaking bitcoin is ticking up each and every day. And for those that think bitcoin is safe – that it still has another decade or two before quantum computers are powerful enough to break cryptography – then they’re forgetting the historical growth curve of computer processing. They’re forgetting the disruptive power of compounding.
Give it another couple of years and they will outperform all computers that could ever be built on earth, even if you use the entire matter of the earth to build them. And then give it another couple of years and they will outperform all computers that could possibly be built – even if you use the entire matter of the universe at your disposal to build the best possible computer any human could ever design, and you gave it the length of the universe in time to work on a problem, it still couldn’t solve the problems that the quantum computer could, in due course, in less than an hour. – UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD PHYSICIST DAVID DEUTSCH
Every financial institution and business would collapse. Not just crypto.
I find it pointless to worry about. It's essentially like worrying about an atomic bomb about to drop on you.