Vaccination Rate / time interval (1st derivative of the cumulative - time unit would be the time data's resolution)
There's a different response in age groups - see next point
I did an analysis in July looking for the efficacy for the vaccines in the UK (they've been relatively open and clear with their data). There's an inverse relationship between efficacy and age / time since vaccination (these variables are hard to separate in this dataset). At the time, the vaccine seemed to yield a ~20% reduction in hospitalizations and ~30% in death for people under 50. But ... for those above, it was the opposite. 20% more deaths and hospitalizations for vaccinated. The evolution was almost linear.
Keep in mind that the data I used came from different sources and in every case of inaccurate data or uncertainty I implemented a positive bias for the vaccine. So, realistically, results would be worse.
At the time, I attributed that to age. Now ... I'm starting to think it's time since vaccine (first dose in my case).
I agree that the UK has been pretty open with their data. With that said, I'm skeptical of any data that requires a decision to be made by a caregiver. Did the person die from pneumonia, organ failure or covid? In the US, hospitals have been complaining that their ICUs are full of unvaccinated covid patients but often, nurses that have actually asked patients in those same hospitals if they were vaxed tell a different story. This is why "death from all causes" is such a valuable data point and Scotland with such a high rate of vaccination is such a valuable resource to track.
By the way, Scotland's datasets are excellent! Other countries would benefit by following Scotland's lead on reporting vital statistics!
Keep in mind that the data I used came from different sources and in every case of inaccurate data or uncertainty I implemented a positive bias for the vaccine. So, realistically, results would be worse.
At the time, I attributed that to age. Now ... I'm starting to think it's time since vaccine (first dose in my case).
I agree that the UK has been pretty open with their data. With that said, I'm skeptical of any data that requires a decision to be made by a caregiver. Did the person die from pneumonia, organ failure or covid? In the US, hospitals have been complaining that their ICUs are full of unvaccinated covid patients but often, nurses that have actually asked patients in those same hospitals if they were vaxed tell a different story. This is why "death from all causes" is such a valuable data point and Scotland with such a high rate of vaccination is such a valuable resource to track. By the way, Scotland's datasets are excellent! Other countries would benefit by following Scotland's lead on reporting vital statistics!