I think the assumption of 3 is based on all the proofs we have seen over the years.

While most of us do think #3 is correct, most of us are also prepared for all other outcomes. We should always be thinking of the possible scenarios. But, I do not think it is productive to be a doomer, not saying you are, but for those that say it is over we must fight today on our own, those are likely glowing feds trying to incite violence.