There is no doubt that the presence of Ukrainians in the Azovstal factory represents a propaganda victory for Ukraine. But the reality is that the city of Mariupol has fallen to Russia; while the Ukrainian defenders, possibly accompanied by thousands of civilians, waste away as their food supplies diminish, the rest of Mariupol is beginning the task of rebuilding a shattered city where an estimated 90% of the buildings have been damaged or destroyed in brutal street-to-street fighting. The Russian land bridge [to Crimea] is intact, and the Russian offensive against Donbass is proceeding without delay.
The statements in Kiev by Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin are a byproduct of the perception of Ukrainian victory shaped by the twin Ukrainian “victories” in Kiev and Mariupol. The reality, however, is that Kiev was a masterful Russian deception that shaped the overall strategic situation in Ukraine in favor of Russia, and the Mariupol battle is likewise finished in terms of any strategic impact on the overall campaign. What is left is the harsh truth of simple “military math” which, when projected onto a map, provides the kind of unyielding fact-based evidence that Ukraine is losing its war with Russia.
[...]
There is virtually no hope of reinforcement or relief for the Ukrainian forces operating on the front lines; Russia has interdicted the rail lines that had served as the conduit for resupply, and the likelihood of any Ukrainian forces which have received heavy weapons provided by the West reaching the frontlines in any discernable strength is virtually zero. The Battle for Donbass is reaching its culminating point, where the Ukrainian military rapidly transitions from a force capable of providing the semblance of resistance to one that has lost all meaningful combat capability.
This is the state of play entering the third month of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine. While the termination of any conflict is always a political question, one thing is for certain — if the operation extends into a fourth month, the battlefield will look vastly different from the one that the world currently sees. The battle for Donbass and eastern Ukraine is all but over. That is the hard reality, and no amount of wishful thinking or perception management by either Zelensky or his American partners can change that.
Ukraine is winning the battle on Twitter, but in the real world Kiev is losing the fight for the Donbass
https://www.rt.com/russia/554729-us-ukrainian-perception-donbass/
There's plenty of footage at /r/CombatFootage on plebbit. As for the authenticity, I can't say, but since the war started, there's been tons of new stuff I've never seen before. Funker530 on YT also has a ton of stuff. Things I've noticed from watching some stuff: if there's footage of bodies, nearly all of the time they are face down; difficult to see unit markings, so forced to take video titles at face-value; nearly all the footage is one-sided e.g. UA forces eliminating RU in various capacities - almost nothing from the RU side.
Very clearly, Russia is winning this conflict, but I do want to know how all of this one-sided footage is being created. I'd like to see a counter-narrative combat footage in RU favor.
I don't think Russia is winning, not even close. The notion that the attempt to surround Kyiv was a distraction is laughable. They sent thousands of men to attack the city on 2 flanks, those flanks got bogged down and decimated for weeks. You don't let thousands of your men die in a "distraction", meanwhile gaining very little ground elsewhere.
Russia has made gains in the south, but not as far as they hoped, clearly, seeing as they've already been forced back in some areas there, and they've captured basically nothing elsewhere.
This war is a complete disaster for Russia. I am shocked by the level of failure of the Russian Army, if anything this proves the lack of need for NATO because Russia is a paper tiger, a conscript army, with a lack of any real leadership and equipment made obsolete because of massive amounts of corruption in the Russian elite.
Take nukes out of the equation and the US could roll through Russia in days... yes... days. Their tanks suck, their air force sucks, their generals are incompetent and their soldiers are ill trained and ill equipped. Their army is bleeding out against an (also corrupt) nation, but a nation with a volunteer army and equipped by 'hand me down' weaponry from the west... not even the good stuff.
I don't agree with the sentiment that Ukraine is winning. I don't think you can claim a victory when a fifth of your country is occupied. I don't see Russia being removed from the ground they've taken any time soon.
I do however agree with you that the planned assault on kyiv was a disaster. That the tanks and equipment is badly serviced and trained. That being said it's hard to tell. I think the beggining of the war the Russians had orders not to engage and try to win over the local populace. Which resulted in many of them being killed by ukranians taking advantage of this. I think the tactic has since changed and they are being much more aggressive.
As much as it pains me I think the weaponry the West sent made a massive difference. There is plenty of footage out there of tanks being destroyed by atgm and launchers. Columns of vehicles in complete disarray.
As far as footage of battles goes. Well I think the modern battlefield has changed. Almost all engagements are ambushes or drones blowing things up from afar. It certainly appears that Russia has lost alot of tanks. But who knows, Ukraine is certainly inflating the numbers. I'm surprised Russia hasn't gone wholesale and just striking Kiev daily with missiles.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think Ukraine can claim victory, but neither can Russia. Russia isn't even remotely close to accomplishing the pre-war goals that they thought they'd achieve in days or weeks.
The weaponry the west has sent is making a big impact but I think the main factor is Russian corruption and Russian conscription. The Russian army is full of men from the dregs of society, forced into service, poorly trained and using equipment that is shoddy, stuff that was cheap to begin with and even then half the production cost went to lining the pockets of some scum bag billionaire.
The idea that Russia was going into Ukraine to clean up corruption was always a complete joke. Russia is one of the most corrupt nations on earth. Just look at Putin, a commie, KGB agent, worth nothing in the 80s, a billionaire by 2000, while the rest of the nation's economy was in ruin.