From Just Human

Prior to the assassination of Former Prime Minister Abe, my best guess as to how events may play out in the Indo-Pacific was this:

-China aggresses more and more towards Taiwan, invasion seems inevitable (similar to the build up of Russian forces on Ukraine’s border prior to their operation being launched in February)

-Biden dithers on a response. Looks foolish and cowardly. Announces he is considering or will be pulling US Forces out of Taiwan, perhaps makes other appeasements to China.

-Trump and others easily make the case that China would not be aggressive towards Taiwan if he was President.

-Just as it is looking like we are headed for an Afghanistan 2.0 scenario, in steps Japan.

-Japan shows real leadership, pledges to protect Taiwan. Perhaps South Korea, Australia, and India also join.

-China backs down, Taiwan is spared, Biden looks more incompetent and compromised than ever. At home and on the world stage.

Now that we have the non-linear event of Former Prime Minister Abe being assassinated, I’m rethinking this scenario.