It's like as if they have served their purpose.
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You've got an interesting perspective on the timing around midterms. For the goons to get all violent without an apparent trigger (like fentanyl Floyd was or any of the numerous criminal losers they trot out as their martyrs) I think that would be a turn-off to the average Joe ovine voter. The right could just point and say "Do you want to choose soft-on-crime marxists in this election?" IMO riots would have to come packaged with an appropriate "incident"/FF they can point to as a spark.
If they were de-fanged that would keep them at bay as they need something with a big enough message, however twisted and warped, to produce lefty outrage enough to generate the crowds they need to slither around in. During the initial series of rioting (before I ever heard of Q) I was saving mugshots of the antifa animals as they were arrested. They were subsequently let loose and appeared again and again in different cities, different states - so someone was paying to transport the goons around the country to make antifa look more formidable than they are. They didn't have enough violent goons in each city/state to produce the narrative they wanted to push - and my guess is there are far fewer of them now unless the MS-13 types flooding in through the border are going to join in.
I do agree with you on the midterms being a turning point for the DS demise. On the other hand, the increasingly demented left has always struck me as the ill-behaved, petulant child kicking over the sandcastle because he/she was admonished that he/she had to play fairly and by the rules. The left would be happy to burn down the country if they can't maintain control by theft and corruption. Nothing is beneath them.