And, what will cause it? (Vax deaths, dollar crash, food shortage, civil war, world war, martial law declared, energy shortage, pandemic, etc)
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We've been having a lot of M class flares in the past few weeks, the highest I remember being M 7.2. An X flare would need to be 40 or more to do major damage.
We are due for another Carrington event.
And, the Earth's magnetic shield is SIGNIFICANTLY weaker than it was during that last event. So, a low power X-flare will likely do MUCH more damage than back then...
But we've had X 20 sometime in the last few years, and there was no major damage. We just had an M 8.6 this morning. I got the report about 7:30 this morning.
Yes, but the key is: are they aimed directly at Earth? Glancing blows aren't as big a deal.
We are due for a direct hit by an X-class flare, based on data that suggests a Carrington-level event occurs approximately every 150 years. The Carrington event fried the telegraph lines... another one will destroy our electric way of life. We will be blasted back to the stone-age for at least a decade. This is what OP asked about/needs to know.
We are also due for the 6,000 year event (possibly a micronova?) sometime in the next 20-40 years according to several scientists/observers. This will be something akin to a "Noah Event", likely including a crustal-shift.