Safe, fast, cheap global movement of goods will soon be only a memory, and at the same time, the world's demographics will continue aging -- with ever-fewer young people to fill workforces and pay taxes (along with other demographic problems). That combination, plus other factors, will disrupt every nation -- a process which has already begun.
America will be better positioned than almost anywhere else -- as it has been for the past 150 years or more -- but the disruptions will still be serious even there.
The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization by Peter Zeihan
Interested in an intelligent, well-sourced look at the world as different from the mainstream view as Q is from CRT? Zeihan, also author of The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder, is an author you shouldn't miss.
From the book's Amazon page:
2019 was the last great year for the world economy. For generations, everything has been getting faster, better, and cheaper. Finally, we reached the point that almost anything you could ever want could be sent to your home within days - even hours - of when you decided you wanted it. America made that happen, but now America has lost interest in keeping it going. Globe-spanning supply chains are only possible with the protection of the U.S. Navy. The American dollar underpins internationalized energy and financial markets. Complex, innovative industries were created to satisfy American consumers. American security policy forced warring nations to lay down their arms. Billions of people have been fed and educated as the American-led trade system spread across the globe. All of this was artificial. All this was temporary. All this is ending.
Zeihan covers the British Empire, and Spain and Portugal and a LOT more, pointing out the strengths of each in their time, both in terms of Empire and in terms of the movement towards industrialization (which Britain was the first to really get underway, of course).
His point about America -- one of his points; he is VERY thorough and wide-ranging in his data and analysis -- is that America had (and still has) the ONLY globe-spanning Navy and other military that could guarantee free and safe ocean passage of goods world-wide EDIT: during the past 70 years or so (Zeihan goes into some detail on this). The vast majority of global trade goes, and can ONLY go, by ocean carrier for economic and other reasons. For centuries, theft and destruction by pirates and hostile governments made ocean shipping dangerous enough to prevent anything like today's reliance on overseas suppliers, denying use of the most cost-effective sources and preventing access to some of the highest quality components that could ONLY be made elsewhere. Not to mention preventing anything like today's global RETAIL trade. From the book:
Today, Ford is -- for the second time in about a year -- sitting on a HUGE pile of F-150s that cannot be finished for lack of computer chips. Here's last year when the pile was 60,000 unfinished vehicles and counting.
And THAT's when things are still basically working normally. The issue of American oversight and of American arm-twisting and carrot-supplying to get nations and regions to trade peacefully with places that are NOT inclined to friendly relations with certain other nations or regions hasn't yet even become an issue.
But it will, Zeihan says, and he makes a good case.
As for China . . . Zeihan details a wide range of reasons why China is more screwed than even I had believed. China will absolutely NOT have the financial, military (esp. naval), demographic, or other strengths needed to "take on the mantle." I do worry that the situation for China is SO bad that they may feel pushed into kinetic war with the US (which has pretty much everything China lacks and covets).
Same for Russia, which is in a much better position than much of the world but not, per Zeihan, anywhere near capable of taking over the job America has been shouldering for the last 70 years or so.