Natural infection, which the vax mimics, did not count towards immunization.
They knew that antivirals needed to be taken early when money could be made (Paxlovid), but when cheap antivirals put the profitability of drug companies at risk (HCQ+zinc and Ivermectin), they had trials designed to fail by taking them late.
It was no guess. All you had to do is see what was going on and think for yourself.
A few additional clues of quackery: