"Russian Winter, sometimes personified as "General Frost"[1] or "General Winter",[2] is an aspect of the climate of Russia that has contributed to military failures of several invasions of Russia. Mud is a related contributing factor that impairs military maneuvering in Russia and elsewhere, and is sometimes personified as "General Mud".[3][4] Russians call those muddy conditions rasputitsa, which occur with autumnal rains and spring thaws in Russia and make transport over unimproved roads difficult."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Winter

And let us not forget this little gem from 06 September 2022:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11185617/Gazprom-releases-sinister-video-showing-worker-turning-gas-supplies-Europe-freezing.html

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/western-elites-sanctions-fever-will-see-common-people-freeze-wreck-lives-putin

Some historical and cultural context to flesh out the narrative messaging, which is pretty deep and pretty significant:

The GAZPROM video with an English translation.

https://youtu.be/9zW_q_YwfUk

The singer is Варвара Визбор, niece of Юрий Визбор, the man who wrote the poem / lyrics.

Here is a video of her singing "А зима будет большая" a cappella in 2015

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSjG3zVMhKc

Here is a video of Юрий Визбор, her very famous uncle (in Russia) singing the same song a long time ago...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bw6ClRlKxv8

Here is Варвара Визбор performing "А зима будет большая" during a "blind audition" on The Voice / Russia in 2015.

Audience knew who she was... none of the judges turned around... audience was not happy. The faces of judges are priceless.

The viewing audience reacted the same way the studio audience did, and Варвара became an overnight star-is-born (which she would have been The Voice or not).

https://youtu.be/syPxVQLZTvM

Here is wiki article on the uncle, who was also a very popular actor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuri_Vizbor

Along with the visuals in the ad, it does appear to basically be sending this message:

https://youtu.be/gxhknGARGt4 (1 min 25 sec)

Here is the "full original" three verses of the poem / song from an online translation. Only the first and third stanza are used in the ad.

А зима будет большая,
Вот, гляди-ка, за рекой
Осень тихо умирает,
Машет желтою рукой.

Плачут мокрые осины,
Плачет дедушка Aрбат,
Плачет синяя Россия,
Превратившись в листопад.

И, сугробы сокрушая,
Солнце брызнет по весне,
А зима будет большая -
Только сумерки да снег.

And winter will be long,
See there, beyond the river:
Fall is quietly passing,
Waving a yellow hand.

Weep Aspens, all wet,
Weeps Grandpa Arbat.
Weeps azure Russia,
Turning into falling leaves.

Then, snowdrifts break,
The sun bursting with spring.
And winter will be long,
Only twilight, only snow,