I guess I'm still confused as to what could happen to cause there to not be a showdown.

I am not looking for a PMM for just the FBI raid - I believe I have not properly communicated this point. I am seeing the FBI raid as the PMM for the whole kit'n'caboodle. Because, and this is my point, if it's not just a PMM but the PMM, then Trump faces an intense uphill legal battle. I won't say impossible (what with his remade, sympathetic judiciary) but near as.

Also, I said before I didn't think it would be before midterms, and with the news of the Trump subpoena, November 14th seems like the earliest date.

So, looking back on everything, I think this is where we stand: you do see a possibility for a third option, where the FBI raid is resolved and Trump is somehow neither victorious nor hosed, and the game continues for a few more turns. I have been trying to suss out what that option is, not getting that what you were saying is that the third possibility is possibility. You don't have a hard read or long theory on what that possibility is, just that you are acknowledging the constant plays of forces beyond our awareness and control means that there is always the possibility of some unguessable third route. I was trying to squeeze concrete detail from a point that was ambiguous by design.