A commander said, "this is not a training deployment, this is a combat deployment"
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Been debating on discussing this.
My take with personal insight from previous work. I'll leave that, at that.
101st is an Air Assault Unit composed of light infantry. In this context they are QRF (Quick Reaction Force).
Think back to rooftop shenanigans in Iran for context.
It is almost impossible to assume that Special Forces (real ones, not the 90% pencil pushers) are likely not in country already.
In the event of an escalation (which this basically is evidence it is more likely than not) they will need to be extracted.
This will be called a humanitarian mission / extraction of nationals, innocents, etc.
Russia will know better and be forced with a choice.
Allow extraction? This let's an incursion to a country that is literally miles from Russia's Capitol to go unpunished when it's a juicy easy target.
Attack extraction? This risks the narrative being created that they are killing civilians trying to escape.
That's just the first aspect. The second is a little more ominous.
This is a forward operating party. Any time you deploy to a new area, a unit is sent to pave the way.
Any time a unit is sent there are contingencies, orders get sent to other units. Those orders may not be given to the soldiers themselves, but with Division level command. Division level command will start to prepare for support and deployment to support the forward deployed party.
The fact that the 101st is there now says that the US feels it's more likely than not there will be direct conflict. This deployment sets a timeline. That timeline is very short. The element of surprise is key in war.
There are a few keys in war.
Scouting / Intel - The fog of war is priority one in combat. This tells me SF is already on the ground, by necessity.
Resources - Attacking the enemies resources successfully almost always converts to decisive victory (Nordstream/Turkstream).
Surprise - Controlling the battlespace is not possible without Scouting / Intel. Once you have the Intel, your troop movements can make sense. They become efficient (if you know what you're doing). This allows you to choose engagements, set up ambushes, and control strategic retreat.
Time - Timeline is not ever directly controlled. It is always influenced by the above factors. A lack of any of the above decreases options and time to implement those options. The less effective you are at managing the above, the more you are forced into a reactive tempo than a proactive tempo.
Conclusion - The US believes it is more likely than not that conventional war is coming. Controlling the above is key to dictate the terms of the conflict. Framing is key to the PSYOP that is conjoined to any kinetic action.
Result - The US has made a move on the board and it is up to Russia to respond.
Options-
Russia gets more aggressive in Ukraine against SF. They go scorched earth. SF must be extracted. 1a) Russia targets 101st extraction teams. 1b) Russia allows 101st extractions. Risk of being accused of war crimes by fake news. Risks of retaliation by 'coalition of the willing' to Russia mainland, Moscow.
Russia allows SF to operate unimpeded. Must make a countermove to win in proxy vs proxy while controlling the narrative. Risk of losing gains and allowing US to bolster missile defense right next to Moscow as well as Russias final free exit to sea. Look at a map. Look at what the US controls regarding Russia's access to ports. Ukraine is their last stand to not be blockaded.
In chess, Russia is in a bad spot. It doesn't have a lot of options with this deployment. However, the US has also showed its hand. This reduces the uncertainty in potential US future moves.
The collapse of probability is an acceleration in our movement toward war. Even nuclear war.
The globalist has little to lose in this game. 2030 is fast approaching. 2050 is on the horizon. The world they are seeking to create only benefits from these happenings at the end of the day.
This collapses probability even further.
The Great Awakening is accelerating to meet the Great Reset on the intellectual battlefield.
This collapses probability even further.
The economic/agricultural/energy downturn of the west and movement of the BRICS alliance collapses the probability further.
It's time to start making plans for what you will do if this escalates much more.
Airburst nuclear weapons are not something you have time to react to after the fact, or during.
The US just released material in PDF regarding these things, quietly.
That's all I'll say for now, for now.
...excellent observations, stated and framed in an outstanding manner....
...I would like to eyeball that pdf....
Good post for conventional thinking. How about they are there as a stabilization force once a ceasefire is reached?
Can't let Russia do it, we've paid for the right to be there so to speak.
101st also takes over critical infrastructure and government for the civil affairs people to come in and operate.
If they are really there to fight russians then In my opinion we have lost the MAGA fight and do not Control what we believed we controlled. I.e. the military.
OR ... let me just throw in some movie madness here.
Sum of All Fears (but in reverse) - the REAL president, Pres. Trump, sent in these forces to help Russia (under the guise of helping Ukraine). Biden either has to play along and say "hey, yeah, I did that!" or expose the puppet strings by saying, "hey, wait - I didn't do that!." I'm not smart enough (and neither is Biden) to figure out how that ends.
The Hunt for Red October - 101st is there to take something out of Ukraine that is damning to Ukraine, not to help them but to take the wind out of their sails, so to speak. To steal their super-secret "ballistic missile submarine" or whatever their super-secret secret is (or there is an actual defection by someone there with this super-secret secret and 101st is there to get them out). Then The Hunt is on!
I really like that story line. Works for me.
Thanks for your thoughts. Do you have a link to the PDF, or can you point me in the right direction?