Finally, there are more immediate political considerations at play. Mexico in 2021 was the 2nd largest trading partner of the United States, with total value of this commerce estimated at $661 Billion. This is important, as Mexican national authorities have previously identified CDS (and CJNG) as a serious threat to cross border trading relations, given their influence in the Mexican borderlands (https://time.com/5936037/us-china-latin-america-influence/). Disruptions to this trade would affect not just important states like Texas and California, but the national economy at large.
On Thursday, Mexican security forces captured Cartel leader Ovidio Guzmán. A son of the infamous drug lord "El Chapo."
Since being captured. The Sinaloa Cartel Has launched wide scale retaliatory attacks against Mexican Security forces. Multiple clashes between Security forces and the Cartel were reported in and around the City of Culicán. The Cartel blocked all major highways in the city of Culicán with burning vehicles. Looting also took place in the city.
There has been some speculation that Mexican authorities did this at the behest of the United States in the lead-up to the meeting of North American leaders next week in Mexico City (https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/tenth-north-american-leaders-summit-preview). There is, however, reason to be skeptical of such; such a violent response by CDS was to be expected after the (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Culiac%C3%A1n)Battle of Culiacán in 2019 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Culiac%C3%A1n). If Sinaloa's demands aren't met and they do follow through with their threats, the deterioration in the security situation could place the meeting in jeopardy.
Such would be a blow to U.S. interests, given Washington's foreign policy of late has increasingly placed an emphasis on the role of Mexico within American strategy (https://www.wbur.org/npr/1127505616/why-the-u-s-might-not-win-the-global-economy-without-canada-and-mexico). Likewise, Chinese reach in Latin America is growing (https://time.com/5936037/us-china-latin-america-influence/), so the more the U.S. has to focus resources on Mexico, the more it is constrained in operating elsewhere in the region to combat this trend.
Finally, there are more immediate political considerations at play. Mexico in 2021 was the 2nd largest trading partner of the United States, with total value of this commerce estimated at $661 Billion. This is important, as Mexican national authorities have previously identified CDS (and CJNG) as a serious threat to cross border trading relations, given their influence in the Mexican borderlands (https://time.com/5936037/us-china-latin-america-influence/). Disruptions to this trade would affect not just important states like Texas and California, but the national economy at large.
Another issue is that, while "American" elites have no issue with mass immigration into the country, the high levels currently being seen this year are still inflicting enough political heat on Washington that Biden recently announced he would head to the border to observe the situation himself (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/05/biden-to-visit-us-mexico-border-city-of-el-paso-on-sunday-as-white-house-rolls-out-new-immigration-rules.html). Should cartel violence seriously escalate, this will only exacerbate the problem by creating a genuine humanitarian crisis on the border as Mexican civilians join the movement north to escape the violence (https://www.newsweek.com/increase-mexican-migrants-us-could-signal-failed-state-1681473).
Exactly this sort of situation has been a persistent fear of U.S. leadership since Obama (https://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/09/world/americas/09iht-letter.1.19217792.html)was in office, and it has grown in recent years as the situation in Mexico becomes more precarious (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/07/opinion/mexico-mormons.html). Time will tell, but the next 72 hours could really set the tone for security issues in North America for 2023.
On Thursday, Mexican security forces captured Cartel leader Ovidio Guzmán. A son of the infamous drug lord "El Chapo."
Since being captured. The Sinaloa Cartel Has launched wide scale retaliatory attacks against Mexican Security forces. Multiple clashes between Security forces and the Cartel were reported in and around the City of Culicán. The Cartel blocked all major highways in the city of Culicán with burning vehicles. Looting also took place in the city.