I would say that there is a 30% chance the black swan event is Trump returning to the WH before the 2024 election. A 30% chance that China threatens to nuke the US if we interfere with their take over of Taiwan and Bidan capitulates. A 30% chance of a European economic collapse. A 10% chance of a Canadian revolution that overthrows the government.
I would say that there is a 30% chance the black swan event is Trump returning to the WH before the 2024 election. A 30% chance that China threatens to nuke the US if we interfere with their take over of Taiwan and Bidan capitulates. A 30% chance of a European economic collapse. A 10% chance of a Canadian revolution that overthrows the government.