The Commercial Real Estate Tsunami Just Shifted Into A Higher Gear
(theeconomiccollapseblog.com)
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No I read what you said but I disagree in that there are big real estate buyers that do think outside the box. Ben Mallah for example did this with John's pass in St Pete Florida where he took the second floor of commercial store fronts of John's pass and turned them into hotel rooms. He had to obtain the go ahead from city planners but yes it is possible. While true it was a challenge for the architects and engineers they made it happen and it is up to code!
I am fully aware of how commercial real estate is about buying, adding value and then flipping quickly. But that isn't going to magically happen with rates going down this time around because the work from home environment and ai/automation is going to accelerate. That assuming the rates drop fast enough which I do not think is very likely given recent word from the fed as rate hikes are very possible next month or in a few months.
In other words yes rates dropping helps ease the pressure on commercial real estate but that also holds true for residential real estate.
If we are playing a game of chicken right now with high rates you want to be holding the residential real estate bag versus commercial real estate. Yes, both are losing hands if held long term and the high rates do not let up. But moving forward lowering rates for commercial real estate isn't a magic bullet that is going to solve everything IMVHO.
My opinion is that even with lower rates that commercial real estate is really going to be a construct of the 20 century that is going to fade as we progress into the 21st century.