As this saga unfolds, we'll certainly know more in the coming days and weeks. I'm tending to believe Prigozhin is somewhat of a megalomaniac. I believe the Putin government see him for what he is. And this is another way of clipping his wings. A lot of Wagner has been absorbed into the MoD. I understand Prigozhin does have a contingent of Wagner with him in Belarus and it makes the "100 km from Kiev" a good talking point. It certainly raises concern in Kiev that attack from Belarus is imminent. However, I tend to think that the move by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is being used more to foster additional security against a planned CIA/MI6/NATO funded insurrection against Lukashenko's government. Lukashenko himself has talked about this as something that is being coordinated by the west. Poland has made repeated military threats against Belarus. The Wagner contingent would raise the ante in this posturing game. The Lithuanian president has already commented stating NATO now needs to beef up the borders as a result of Wagner.