Difficult. Intel would find out about such a movement, and Ukraine could prepare better. I don't know, what happened, but if a large portion of Wagner really is 100 Km away from Kiev, that's quite something.
Lukashenko couldn't allow the russian Army or Wagner to operate out of Belarus, it would become a combatant nation. Now... Wagner can do whatever they want and Lukashenko simply can condemn the action Wagner takes.
That's right, but what optics are better? Moving in secret, putting Lukashenko into a very sketchy position, or this charade exiling Prigoschin in Belarus?
Prugoschin is definitely on the kill list now so it’s time for him to exit the stage. I imagine in the future there will be military leaders that are purely fictional that can be nothing but actors and AI. They can be killed, exiled, hunted or executed all to build a narrative or lead the enemy into expending resources chasing a ghost. I’m sure it’s been done in the past. Actually they did that with Patton leading up to the D-day invasion, but in this case Patton wouldn’t have existed at all.
The “mutiny” was a ruse, it would have been necessary to even convince the Wagner Group soldiers that they were in a mutiny. Operational security would be of utmost importance in an operation like this, they probably still believe the Putin negotiations were real. This is a real dangerous phase, a shit ton of military assets are in Europe right now. Anyone “plane fagging” see’s it, C-17’s have been stacking up like the 405 freeway at rush hour. NATO has intelligence aircraft and kh-11 spy satellites covering all electronic communications. To pull this off even the people in the know would almost have to believe the ruse, one comment on a phone call or radio could give it all away.
I don't know squat about military anything, but it makes sense to me that you would use a mercenary army in such a maneuver because getting loyal troops to buy into a mutiny would be much harder.
I want to believe, but couldn't Wagner have silently moved into Belarus without this "mutiny"?
Difficult. Intel would find out about such a movement, and Ukraine could prepare better. I don't know, what happened, but if a large portion of Wagner really is 100 Km away from Kiev, that's quite something.
Lukashenko couldn't allow the russian Army or Wagner to operate out of Belarus, it would become a combatant nation. Now... Wagner can do whatever they want and Lukashenko simply can condemn the action Wagner takes.
Let's see, what habbens.
Russia just moved tactical nukes to Belarus, too. Chess moves, indeed.
Intel knows about it either way.
That's right, but what optics are better? Moving in secret, putting Lukashenko into a very sketchy position, or this charade exiling Prigoschin in Belarus?
Prugoschin is definitely on the kill list now so it’s time for him to exit the stage. I imagine in the future there will be military leaders that are purely fictional that can be nothing but actors and AI. They can be killed, exiled, hunted or executed all to build a narrative or lead the enemy into expending resources chasing a ghost. I’m sure it’s been done in the past. Actually they did that with Patton leading up to the D-day invasion, but in this case Patton wouldn’t have existed at all.
The “mutiny” was a ruse, it would have been necessary to even convince the Wagner Group soldiers that they were in a mutiny. Operational security would be of utmost importance in an operation like this, they probably still believe the Putin negotiations were real. This is a real dangerous phase, a shit ton of military assets are in Europe right now. Anyone “plane fagging” see’s it, C-17’s have been stacking up like the 405 freeway at rush hour. NATO has intelligence aircraft and kh-11 spy satellites covering all electronic communications. To pull this off even the people in the know would almost have to believe the ruse, one comment on a phone call or radio could give it all away.
I don't know squat about military anything, but it makes sense to me that you would use a mercenary army in such a maneuver because getting loyal troops to buy into a mutiny would be much harder.