The Darkness Ahead: Where The Ukraine War Is Headed
(mearsheimer.substack.com)
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Scare event?
I don't think so - Mearsheimer thinks that at best the war will wind down into a sort of stalemate, while both parties growl at each other. He is quite clear that neither side will achieve what their goals are. The issue for NATO and Ukraine is that Russia has all the time, weapons and manpower. Never interrupt the enemy when he is making a mistake, however.
But, neither side wants a nuclear war.