Something I've been postulating on in the usual autistic manner. How will bonds and treasuries be handled during the collapse. My understanding, which admittedly isn't the greatest when it comes to ultra-scale finance, is that the majority of Billion Dollar+ Companies will keep most of their "cash" in the form of T-Bills and Federal/Municipal bonds.
For all intents and purposes, Government issued bonds are equivalent to cash once you reach macro-scale finance for giant corporations. They're easily convertible into actual cash on demand, and even give a small amount of interest that's 100% tax free in the interim. So it all makes sense, given it would be next to impossible to safely store billions of dollars in cash, even using a cash management service like Intrafi, the maximum you could store using FDIC coverage would be $750 Million.
So here's my question for those autists and anons more knowledgeable in this realm. What's going to happen to the bond market during and after the financial collapse? I mean, we can't just let trillions of dollars in capital evaporate. That's the money that's used to pay people's wages for the majority of large and medium sized businesses.
I know I know. "I don't care what happens to (Insert large corporation)". And I get that sentiment. BUT, I do care about the people who work for said large corporations, and all the smaller businesses that rely on them. How will the farmers who provide the produce for say, walmart, get paid if all of walmart's liquid capital is poofed out of existence overnight. How will all the blue collar CNC Machine shop workers that make precision parts for GM, Ford, and Chrysler get paid if the big three don't have the capital to pay for their machining contracts? Etc. etc.
And that's not even touching the fact that the majority of banks in the USA actually take your money and invest them into US bonds and Treasuries. That's where the majority of you money you put into a bank goes, not to loans, or a vault. The overwhelming majority is invested in US treasuries and bonds as a "safe" investment. So this would also mean literally everyone in the country would essentially lose their money and have no means of recovering it.
My limited understanding from my business classes back in college, is that in the "unlikely scenario" of a default, the US Government may default on all FOREIGN debt, but may never default on debt owed to US Citizens. Meaning if push come to shove, we could dump all of our foreign debt, but any bonds or Treasuries owned by a US citizen or company will still have to be honored.
But when I tried confirming this, I found nothing to confirm that, which has me thinking my Finance and Business professors lied to us (shocker). And when I try to ask this question on any other forum I get the typical normie response of "It's impossible, the US can't default since its' the safest investment in the world". Even when I try to put forth a hypothetical question on the topic, it's apparently just so unfathomable to these people that it would happen.
Which led to me asking my fellow financial nerd anons and autists. What's your theory on this? Not something I've ever seen brought up before, and figured it was worth discussing.
EDIT: Since people keep mentioning silver and gold, let me point this out. Gold and Silver will be USELESS in this scenario. No one can buy your gold or silver if no one has money for it, and you can't trade it for non existent groceries and supplies because the producers aren't being paid. In this scenario all forms of "traditional currency" are essentially worthless, because we've devolved into a "Mad Max" type scenario since no one has any money and are desperate to meet their basic needs. The only things of value would be food, medical supplies, water, ammo, and weapons. Your gold and silver won't do you much good when no one cares about it because they're desperate for food and have more guns and ammo than you.
Hence why I believe there HAS to be a solution to this scenario, and why I'm asking for theories on what that solution may be.
We've gone bankrupt 3 times and are currently insolvent so its actually a very likely scenario. The most likely. If Trump gets back in, he has talked several times about defaulting. We will have to, eventually, if left on the same course and that's just simple math. Have never heard about obligation to pay us holders as opposed to foreign but in some ways would make sense. But bottom line is, several tranches and a large chunk, maybe the majority, will never get to be repaid. This will crush the bond market. You are right that on the macro scale everyone has to hold USTs, but that is changing. That is the big thing with de-dollarization-- no one has to hold it anymore. So prices will already be trending in that direction. It will have everything to do with people moving away from dollar. Too many dollars for less holders, will skyrocket inflation. For me the big question is how do we right size it? If they do a currency swap and we go to a real dollar, the bonds will still be dollar denominated, just a different dollar and we don't have to default. Imagine the US dollar gaining strength and it costs little, relatively, to retire a large amount of debt, so that's a possibility too.
I kind of figure that it'll be a situation where things will be "prorated" if that makes sense? Like, US based bond holders will STILL be honored, but instead of current face value, they'll be prorated to match the new USD instead of the Federal Reserve Note.
For example, a $1000 Bond will now pay out, say, $20, but that $20 is worth what it was in 1930. These numbers probably aren't correct, but I can't be bothered to do all the inflation/deflation adjusted math right now. I think I've got the point I was trying to make across though.
Yes, would be something like that. Would have to go back though and read the language but I think this is actually allowed for. And your math is probably not that far off. But yes will have to be something like that. Is the only way. The thing is, basically financial theory is based on the risk free rate (treasuries) and this is how all assets are priced. So if the UST were to suffer a massive impact, the flow-through effect would be incredible. You are only talking about USTs... what about the multi trillion dollar corporate bond market? Also implodes. You touched on it kinda in the thought that all govs/large corps have to hold them, but they also issue their own debt, which is also greatly dependent on that treasury rate. Anecdotal, but my first day of my masters my teacher put up a bunch of slides of Russian empire bond notes that were never honored by the bolsheviks. People spent years, and may still even be in litigation today, over unpaid notes from over 100 years ago. So they're not going away. If they can avoid default they will at all costs but somethings going to have to change.