A fren asked when I think the stock market will crash and here is my reply. First some background and then my answer.
Background:
January is the estimated time when the Federal Reserve - Reverse Repo Market runs out.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD/
That is what is being used to fund the governments insane spending, because when the government borrows money, they have to sell a US Treasury Bond backing that money. The US Treasury trades their Bonds for the cash parked in the Reverse Repo Market.
In the just 3 weeks the govt has borrowed $550 Billion+
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1712217005992939952
The Reverse Repo Market has drained 100 Billion almost every week for a month except the 3rd week of October. The Reverse Repo is being used to immediately buy Treasury Bonds and keep the interest rates of them (yields) from shooting up further.
Japan who owns $1 Trillion of US Treasury Bonds is also on deaths door. Historically when Yen-to-Dollar is 150/$ then the Bank of Japan intervenes and sells some US Bonds to raise value of yen against the dollar. That's happened a couple of times this month.
When Reverse Repo runs out, Treasury Bonds are going to shoot through the roof. This will be the 2nd big crash.
My Answer:
What do I think will happen? Short answer: 2 crashes in stock market then devaluing dollar then CBDC then freedom.
1st dip will be big enough most Boomers will think that was the crash and put all their money back in the stock market. I expect it around end of October - November before Thanksgiving from the way things are going but it may happen later. Boomers and older are important because they own about 70% of US Wealth and getting their wealth is the ultimate goal.
https://www.marketingcharts.com/demographics-and-audiences/youth-and-gen-x-75103
Govt will ramp up borrowing like crazy causing Treasury Bonds to crash in value and their interest rates to shoot up, possibly above the federal reserve base interest rate. Boomer money not in stock markets will go into Treasury Bonds. They will falsely think they are a safe haven as they've been trained to think.
Banks go insolvent from decreased Treasury Bonds value and are unable to back up deposits. They go bankrupt selling anything they own to cover any costs they can, causing more supply of Treasury Bonds on market dumping price lower and yields higher. Govt keeps borrowing and spending.
Reverse Repo runs out of money. Treasury bonds must be sold on the open market where nobody wants to buy. Values drop at insane levels and their interest rates shoot through the roof.
This will be the 2nd big crash that wipes out the rest of stock market and retirement money. Along with the Derivatives (estatimated $Trillion - 4 Quadrillion value), the Futures Market and even the paper gold/paper silver. I expect this to happen January-February but i am likely wrong on the exact timing here. This is the big boy to worry about. Physical cash will be very valuable at this point and it'll be the time to go spend your cash you have left. Any electronic cash will be gone and you'll be unable to access it.
Gold and silver will spike up overnight and maybe a bit for crypto but it won't hit its peak yet.
Then the govt will keep borrowing but nobody will buy Treasury bonds. No worries, the Federal Reserve has a fix for that from a paper that came out in Jackson Hole, WI this summer
Presenting the Fed's Perfect Plan for U.S. Dollar Oblivion | BestEvidence
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0u5h579ZeU
https://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/9726/JH_Paper_Duffie.pdf
In this paper, the Federal Reserve and Govt solves the problem of having no Treasury Bond Buyers on the market. Currently the Federal Reserve can only buy Treasury Bonds that have already been sold from the US Treasury. This paper suggests to do away with that and have the Federal Reserve directly buy Bonds from the US Treasury. This will double inflation increase as the Federal Reserve will have to print money to buy the Treasury Bonds and more money is printed for the US Treasury once the bonds are sold.
There will now be no incentive for the govt not to borrow to oblivion and the physical dollars will quickly become worthless so you'd better get rid of your cash by then. Gold/silver, Crypto, Bullets, Food, Resources.
People will have to come together and do whatever they can for each other to survive this mess. Crypto will shoot up in use at this time because of instant transaction, long distance payments, and exact pricing. This will eventually take over by the peoples choice.
Govt buildings will be burning, urban city dwellers starving, and the pain will be so bad that people beg for a CBDC to stop from starving. That is the Cabal's bet and they will issue a CBDC at this time.
The foil to their plan will be gold/silver and ultimately crypto because the Cabal/Central Bankers have less of their hands in crypto than gold/silver (central banks have been massively buying precious metals) and its more usable over long distances. They won't be able to control people conducting their own business and they will fail dramatically. I think the military will step in when people have made the choice and decide against Central Banks and their CBDCs.
This is my best guess at the moment. I am likely wrong somewhere especially on the timeline, but as the govt actions play out over time, they become more predictable.
What do you all think?
Central bankers have been buying a lot of gold, not silver. Silver is needed for medicine, electronics, chemicals, and more.
Extremely huge quantities of silver is needed for the Solar Panels and every time researchers try to make the Solar panels more efficient, it requires more silver.
I think they have bought up most of the gold in anticipation of a countermove to the CBDCs but Silver will be adopted by the people and then crypto.
They may say it underpins their CBDC, just look at BRICS nations buying up gold and see which ones are making their own CBDC (China).
I know they’re going to push hard for CBDC, but I just don’t see the appetite of the people being there. Especially after all of the boomers/retirees get screwed on any paper silver in their portfolio. What would the appeal be of a fiat currency that you can’t even hold? They’re really going to have to force it down our throats. Perhaps even by making other currencies illegal.
When people are starving and begging for a stimulus check to eat, that'll be a cbdc
I think we’re on the same page as I agree that’s how it’s going to go down. However, how does it actually play out after that? If I’m selling food in a crash scenario, the last thing I’d accept are digital credits from an institution that just blew the value out of the dollar and bullion certificates. There’s also the logistics of weather devices and networks will reliably work in this scenario. It will be a very tough sell. I think it will have to be enforced at gunpoint.
That's where you have your illegal immigrant + undercover UN army.
They won't be able to stop people from conducting business in gold/silver/crypto
Small businesses come back in a big way. People will make their own stuff again.
The crisis won't last long because at some point you will get our military men to intervene and they will be for bringing order back and they won't be on the Central Bankers side.
I expect the government to borrow and print exorbitant amounts of money to keep infrastructure going and that can work if only for the few months leftists have any further confidence in the system.
It'll take people volunteering at some point to keep necessary infrastructure up and running. There would have to be enough food to feed them.