30-year mortgage rates are near 8% with excellent credit. Interest rates have climbed for the past three months straight. The Fed is considering another interest rate increase for November and December, possibly pushing rates up to 8.5% or even 9%. The reasoning is that higher interest rates will "slow down inflation".
Home sales are at a 13-year low. Factor in the higher cost of insurance and the fact that property taxes are going up to unaffordable levels and the very high cost of labor and materials for home construction... and you have a real estate market that's going to crater.
I personally know several homeowners that had their homes listed for sale, but have removed them from the market in the past 2 months. They will wait and hold on to what they have for now. One real estate agent mentioned to a couple that they should keep their house off the market until at least middle of next year and then decide based on market conditions.
I'm suggesting that the U.S. economy is a three legged stool... and one of those legs is housing and private & commercial real estate. If it fails, the economy goes into a deep recession at best.
Yep, sounds like late 2007... but I think what's coming will be 100 times worse than 2008.
The 2008 crash was a result of the heavy use of Libor Adjustable mortgages that ballooned from 2% to near 10% over a few years' time. Nobody was able to refinance since they didn't qualify for the size loan they took initially, and the loans had a 5% prepayment penalty. The original loans were no down payment loans and refinance loans required equity plus the 5% prepayment penalty.