I suspect the depression is going to be the entirety of 2024. But there will probably only be 3-4 weeks of serious shortages, where basic commodities are simply unavailable at any price. This will mark the precipice.

To this end, I always wondered why Blockrock et. al bought up all the housing stock in 2021-2022, sending housing prices soaring. The last couple of weeks have hinted at the plan. They are going to crash the housing market. Using the excuse that treasuries are paying 5+% and return on rentals is only around 4%, they are going to dump their houses onto the market. (Don't worry...you and I won't get the cheap deals. They have shell companies flush with cash and primed to acquire the houses at the discounted rates. It will be a paper transaction only for the purposes of setting market valuations.) The housing market at present is so completely seized up and lightly traded they will have little resistance to pulling this off.

This is going to kill the housing market, and put the final nail in ordinary American's livelihood, leaving millions underwater on their mortgages and making home equity lines of credit worthless. Since for most of America, the vast majority of their perceived worth is in their home, the collapse of housing market will be a death blow to their finances.

But this is a slow process. It will necessarily unfold over several months, spreading like a virus and infecting every community at different rates. It's not something that can be done in a few days like crashing the stock market.