Potential series of events. Should an invasion go live.
The International Court makes its ruling. That Venezula ignores and goes ahead anyway with an invasion. Once again demonstrating. International Law has no power without a major power being willing to enforce international law at gun point.
Supposing a War goes ahead. Lula and Brazil will likely be forced to insert themselves into the engagement. Whether he wishes to get involved or not. In order to provide legitimacy to his regime and continue the steps Brazil has been taking to establish itself as a regional power. It is however unknown which side they would take however.
Given Venezuelas status as an asset of fellow BRICs nations in Russia and China.
Argentina under Milei will also face the question of whether to involve itself or not. His campaign was noted for virulent anti-leftist rhetoric. Which would create the impression he would be willing to Militarily oppose the expansion of a leftist nation state by force of arms.
What the U.S could or would be willing to do. Is uncertain given Biden and frankly uncertain domestic politics. Should the U.S involve itself Militarily. A U.S Air campaign would effectively terminate a Venezuelan invasion before it could really get off the ground.
Likely though any U.S support would take the form of supplies. And diplomatic green lights given to any regional U.S Allies who wish to involve themselves Militarily.
Uncertain whether Russia or China would take formal diplomatic stances in support of the invasion. As doing so. Frankly could undermine the arguments they’ve been using to bludgeon Western Powers. So any support they may provide to Venezuela would likely be unofficial.
Potential series of events. Should an invasion go live.
The International Court makes its ruling. That Venezula ignores and goes ahead anyway with an invasion. Once again demonstrating. International Law has no power without a major power being willing to enforce international law at gun point.
Supposing a War goes ahead. Lula and Brazil will likely be forced to insert themselves into the engagement. Whether he wishes to get involved or not. In order to provide legitimacy to his regime and continue the steps Brazil has been taking to establish itself as a regional power. It is however unknown which side they would take however.
Given Venezuelas status as an asset of fellow BRICs nations in Russia and China.
Argentina under Milei will also face the question of whether to involve itself or not. His campaign was noted for virulent anti-leftist rhetoric. Which would create the impression he would be willing to Militarily oppose the expansion of a leftist nation state by force of arms.
What the U.S could or would be willing to do. Is uncertain given Biden and frankly uncertain domestic politics. Should the U.S involve itself Militarily. A U.S Air campaign would effectively terminate a Venezuelan invasion before it could really get off the ground.
Likely though any U.S support would take the form of supplies. And diplomatic green lights given to any regional U.S Allies who wish to involve themselves Militarily.
Uncertain whether Russia or China would take formal diplomatic stances in support of the invasion. As doing so. Frankly could undermine the arguments they’ve been using to bludgeon Western Powers. So any support they may provide to Venezuela would likely be unofficial.
I am wondering about the FARM problem.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/07/31/guyana-cia-meddling-race-riots-phantom-death-squad-ppp/