Currently Paper Gold is selling @ over 100 X amount mined for the year, and Silver is worse at north of 400 X the amount mined.
I'm not going to research gold in depth for this article, but Silver mining produces around 1B Troy Ounces a year currently so its about $30 B a year in new silver worldwide, a very small amount of Gross World Product of 100T, but with paper trading over 400 they turn it into a $12T churn.
Most silver is mined as a Byproduct of other mining, Gold ,Aluminum, Copper, and other . Several reports that China is buying up silver pre-refining and that isn't reported in the 1 B ounces. Will do research and confirm or deny with sauce.
Silver is the most conductive elemental metal and that is it's usefulness in Electronics, Batteries, Solar Panels. Without the conductivity of the silver where needed, all of the above would be unpractical in regards to power transfer efficiency. Over Demand for silver has been the case for a few years, but the amount of silver stockpiled up by industries, central banks, and bullion collectors, etc... Is massive.Silver is also antimicrobial and used in internal and external medicines
Another bright spot will be when silver is legal tender and in common use. A downside is lesser demand because Meh solar, and electric cars suck.
Gold @ 100 Paper per actual oz mined, which is crazy numbers high too. Gold is also used in electronics, but a lot more sparingly, its purpose is where staying shiny and untarnished matters like CPU and connector pins. They don't have to be solid because bost electricity travels along the surface of the wire. Gold is used in dentistry, but its not that big of market. Some estimates put gold at over 50% in Jewelry, but I think that is misleading. All the Central Banks are sucking it up and have been since their inception.
Gold is more steady in % of ups and downs, but silver is way more useful, Link shows ratio of mined/ price etc. of gold and silver From link:
Geologists estimate that there are approximately 19 ounces of silver for every ounce of gold in the earth’s crust, with a ratio of approximately 11.2 ounces of silver to each ounce of gold that has ever been mined. Interestingly, the silver-gold ratio in ancient Egypt was 1:1.
Current Gold silver ratio is about 85, so gold is way over valued compared to scarcity and silver's usefulness.
So what does this mean for gold and silver prices?
Well if the US Debt Clock is accurate on the plan to use Gold, Silver, and other commodities as money, it will increase demand and should put a huge dent in the silver and gold stockpiled up by whomever. Gold likely to be harder to use for small purchases, silver will be the buy groceries. get your hair cut currency .
There are all kinds of off the chain estimates, but how much silver and gold that has been mined over thousands of years? How much coin minted does the world need?
Gold was 20.63 in 1913, The first minimum wage law in Cali was introduced in 1913, setting the rate at $0.16 per hour. That 1 oz of Gold took 129 hours of Min wage Labor to buy. 2024 Gold at 2344 an oz, Cali Minimum wage is 16 an hour so an Oz of gold would take 146 hours at Cal Minimum wage, actually more hours because of all the taxes we pay in 2024. But reasonably close.
In 1913 A nice suit cost 16 bucks, a nice hat under 10, a good pair of shoes 5 bucks, lets say 1.5 Oz of gold. Today a nice suit can be had for 600, but you can pay literaly 10's of thousands. You spurge and get the 1,500 dollar suit, 250 bucks on shoes, and another, 200 bucks on a hat. So its cheaper now, but mass produced compared to taylormade.
Gold and silver is a way to keep your wealth from going blip. Not necessarily to get rich! However there seem to be a lot of factors to consider. When the fiat paper on gold, silver, and other commodities goes away Its true value will be shown. I'm optimistic that the prices will rise, but some people are coming up with crazy prices. Gold is already bouncing around its record. Silver is at 28.50 but The silver all-time high was US$48.70 per ounce, a level it reached on January 18, 1980. Demand is greater now than then, but the 400X mined sold via paper keeps the price down. So if silver was at 48 44 years ago, its reasonable to assume it may go that high again.
People predicting 5,000 silver are crazy! All the people stockpiling will start selling long before 5,000
Not really crazy. No offense, but the same people saying that are the same people saying bitcoin was worthless. Which don't get me, I don't like crypto because I don't get it, but I'm not dumb enough to realize that people who have gotten in before each of the major "rushes" came out like bandits.
The same thing is gonna happen with silver and gold. More silver than gold though. You have to realize, things are WAY different now than they were in 1980. The internet is a thing now, information is instant, and you have entire cultures of millions of "finance bros" and other cultures of millions of people wanting to get rich quick all over the world.
You're also no accounting for the largest offenders of the "paper manipulation" going under. Once all the big naked shorters fall, silver WILL go up to insane levels. That's just a basic market principle, without JP Morgan and "friends" driving the price down insanely low, it'll naturally climb to a much higher level. And with a 400X fake silver factor, it's not gonna stop at $50 an ounce. With big banks failing, the world appearing to be ending, and the manipulation being stopped, its gonna be a several thousand an ounce at least. 5K an ounce being the generally agreed upon "real value"
Ignoring the normie factor (cause don't doubt for a second that normies won't try to get it on this in hopes of making it big: Look at gamestop, AMC, etc.), FOMO and other factors will drive the prices of every financial commodity, silver, gold, crypto, etc. to insane levels for at least a few months. So yeah, it's entirely likely we'll temporarily see 12K+ silver for a few months, probably even 20K+, when the larger banks start failing and the world appears to be ending. But then it'll quickly crash down to "normal" levels of 2-5K an ounce.
Now having said all of that, if we go back to the gold and/or silver standard, this'll be a weird situation where yes, your silver is worth 2-5K an ounce in todays money, but when the new financial system gets going, it'll be a much lower number due to deflation.
TL;DR: It's not crazy to say silver is going to be crazy value wise. You're underestimating the ape behavior of people in general as well as how much of an effect not having literal trillions of dollars of fake silver floating around will have on the price of the metal.
I like your analysis. So, when it reaches extreme highs, do we sell a tin of our silver for fake paper fiat? Or just hang on and let it enter the new financial system that is coming? My senses are saying don't sell. Hold at all costs. Even if it hits 20k. If it hits 20k, we got bigger problems and our fiat won't be worth shit. 20k fost might mean nothing. Ya know? I hope the good guys have a plan also for people that are holding cash. We can't be given pennies on out hard earned dollars. It's all so much to consider.
Honestly, I don't think it'll matter much. People have this idea that we're gonna instantly transform our economic system from fiat to non fiat overnight. That's actually very unlikely.
For example, when we went from gold backed to fiat, it wasn't an instant transition. It took several years to fully implement, retire old money (Since money printed before we were taken off the gold standard could still technically be turned in and exchanged for silver/gold legally), etc. etc.
It's a process, and it won't be instant. Honestly, I don't think people will lose as much money as some seem to think. Most "money" isn't actually money. It's just "value". For example, at any given time there's roughly 2.26 Trillion "dollars" in circulation both physically and digitally. There's 25 Trillion dollars worth of residential real estate (single family homes) in the USA. Our combined stock markets (NASDAQ and NYSE) are worth something like 26 Trillion.
There's more "dollars" in terms of value of assets, than actual dollars in existence. So even if we enter slight deflation because the dollar supply drops (meaning a dollar goes further), it won't be an overnight thing. It'll be a gradual process over, probably ten or so years, so as to not shock the various markets, vendors, businesses, etc. that make up our economy.
Imagine you're a small business, and you have a contractual agreement that renews annually to buy X product for a certain amount. If all of a sudden, money is more valuable, that contract means that small business has to pay 10 times more for the same product, and they're contractually obligated to do so.
Stuff like that would ruin the economy worse than having a fiat currency since it would instantly bankrupt millions of businesses.
So no, I'm not worried about the whole "fiat is gonna be worthless" argument. It will be eventually, but it's more likely than not gonna be a very gradual process done in steps to prevent massive shocks to the economy that would make things even worse than if we just stayed on fiat.
And because of the fact it's gonna be gradual, that gives people plenty of chances to make use of that "fiat". Cash out high, wait until the stock market completely tanks, buy a bunch of index funds for pennies on the dollar, or buy real estate, heck, buy or start your own business.
A smart person isn't gonna hold onto all their cash that comes from cashing out when prices go crazy, they're gonna take advantage of the fact everything other asset class is crashing as well, and translate their silver into something that will produce even more wealth/income for them in the post cabal world.
Imagine buying something like, Microsoft stock for a $10 a share or something like that. It probably won't jump back up to it's current $400+ price any time soon, but even if it only recovers to $100 a share in a few years, you 10x-d your money on a single investment.
This is how JFK's dad got super wealthy, sold all his assets at the right time, went into the great depression with millions of dollars in cash, and then bought up assets dirt cheap. By the time things had recovered, he was the equivalent of a modern day billionaire (If I remember right he went from having an inflation adjusted net worth of something like $20 Million to $4 Billion over the course of about 7 years)
Long winded I know, but people think this stuff is gonna happen overnight, when realistically, it's gonna take probably a decade to see the new system fully implemented, and while yes, we'll probably see some deflation during that period, the fiat money you have is more or less gonna be treated the same as the new gold and silver backed currency for all intents and purposes.
Really and truly, the only people who'll come out like bandits, are the ones who manage to pull a kennedy and translate their precious metal holdings into other assets during the transition period.