I held this back for about a week because I just didn't want to post it for fear it would give them an idea if somehow they saw this. Now I decided that WHs are more likely to see it and be able to prevent it from happening. I hope my theory does not become a fact.
We all know Ukraine now has F-16s, given to them from a few various countries - and not directly from the US. Regardless of where they recently came from, they are still American planes. Russia is understandably not happy about this, and would be justified in taking some sort of action against the US or NATO. Putin is still practicing great restraint, but that would almost certainly change if certain red lines were crossed.
I struggled to understand why we would even allow Ukraine to have the jets, given their track record with other advanced weapons systems we gave them and they quickly lost due to incompetence and lack of proper training. Ukraine has to know they are likely to be shot out of the sky (or on a runway somewhere) the first time a newly "trained" pilot taxis out to take off. Ukraine also has to know they have zero chance of winning this war and are entirely over-matched, both in manpower and technology.
So why would they want these planes so much?
Consider this. Ukraine wants the US and NATO to join the war because they think that is the only way they can win. Until now, they've had no real way of getting NATO or the US engaged. Enter the F-16s...
This is where it gets bad. The only way I see NATO and the US getting involved is if Ukraine forces Putin to act. The easiest way to do that would be for a Ukrainian pilot to fly an F-16 into Russia and bomb a large city full of civilians. While NATO and the US would try to say we weren't responsible, the alliance is responsible for giving Ukraine the ability to attack much further inside of Russia than the drones they are using on single targets. I think that would bring all of our bases and all of the NATO countries into a hot war immediately - which would be WWIII.
I think this theory is entirely plausible, and may well be probable. Hopefully one of the WHs that undoubtedly lurks here sees this and is able to do something to keep it from happening.
What do you guys think?
Well one of the things I've heard is Ukraine is talking about parking a couple of the jets in a NATO country. If they did that, it could give cover for a Ukrainian pilot to tell NATO he is taking the plane back to Ukraine. I don't know if they would leave fully armed, but because it would be flying into a war zone it would be prudent to have missiles in case you run into Russian jets.
I don't know - I think it would be easier to attack directly from Ukraine, but if they are intent on bringing NATO into the war then flying the mission from a NATO base would certainly do that.