Preface: I am not an economist, nor am I particularly smart.
Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that Trump wins in November. Let's also assume that he manages to enact all the various economic policies he's proposing:
- Reducing the size & scope of government
- Bringing jobs back to America by reducing corporate taxes for business making American goods
- Increased taxes (tariffs) for goods made outside America
- Various tax breaks for individuals (no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, etc.)
It seems to me like the tariffs will hit as soon as the law is put in place, whereas the tax breaks won't show until the next tax season. Reviving American manufacturing will take a few years, minimum; until then, the prices for things like semiconductors will be higher, since they're made outside the country.
To be clear, I'm not saying these are bad ideas -- I do think it will benefit the economy in the long term. I just want to know if I should prepare for a short-term crunch, or if I'm reading the tea leaves wrong.
Oil and gasoline might become cheaper overnight, thus a lot of things might go down in price due to cheaper transportation costs. Remember, cutting taxes are one thing but cutting the price of a gallon of gasoline has a lot more weight in our economy. Tax cuts will take effect whenever you gotta pay your tax bill, maybe in a year, IDK your state's particular pay schedule, but everyone across the nation will benefit when the price of gasoline goes down. Now that will necessitate the drilling for oil so more gasoline can be manufactured, or reopen closed down gasoline wells and begin pumping, that way you don't have to drill new wells. Plus there might have to be new oil refineries built to handle the added pressure of more folks using their own vehicles for transportation. And if Trump can get the price of new cars down to a reasonable price, then more folks will want to get out on the road. (<$20K/car) Certainly within six months after Jan 20, '25 everyone in America should see some sort of savings.
The cheaper gas sets in motion a cascade effect which ripples through all sectors of the economy. Ultimately driving up consumer spending, and starting the engine of a strong economy.
Newtons Law, Energy sector layoffs. Exploration will suffer, building rigs will suffer. The big boys will sit back and pump and leave the exploration to the small guys who work with investors just trying to make a slim buck. $85 was the magic number a few years back.