Preface: I am not an economist, nor am I particularly smart.
Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that Trump wins in November. Let's also assume that he manages to enact all the various economic policies he's proposing:
- Reducing the size & scope of government
- Bringing jobs back to America by reducing corporate taxes for business making American goods
- Increased taxes (tariffs) for goods made outside America
- Various tax breaks for individuals (no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, etc.)
It seems to me like the tariffs will hit as soon as the law is put in place, whereas the tax breaks won't show until the next tax season. Reviving American manufacturing will take a few years, minimum; until then, the prices for things like semiconductors will be higher, since they're made outside the country.
To be clear, I'm not saying these are bad ideas -- I do think it will benefit the economy in the long term. I just want to know if I should prepare for a short-term crunch, or if I'm reading the tea leaves wrong.
Years is optimistic. A few decades is probably more realistic. There’s quite a bit of expertise that either no longer exists domestically. Or exists in such small numbers that it’ll take years to start producing people with the know how again in sufficient quantities to meet the demand.
So how much and how fast Industry can grow is capped on the amount of expertise we have. Not to mention the lack of bodies to feed into the proverbial grinder for “Less Skilled” word. IE working the assembly line.
Economically Short term. You may see price increases on some “Luxury” goods. I’d imagine they’ll act to stabilize and deflate prices on ‘necessary’ items.
But there’s quite a bit that depends on the legal status of various individuals and companies. As quite a few Companies and Wealthy Corporate Leaders, Managers and Executives have been implicated in nefarious activities.
So if most of the Board, upper management, and Major Shareholders are in jail. Or dancing the Hempen Jig. That might cause some problems