Preface: I am not an economist, nor am I particularly smart.
Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that Trump wins in November. Let's also assume that he manages to enact all the various economic policies he's proposing:
- Reducing the size & scope of government
- Bringing jobs back to America by reducing corporate taxes for business making American goods
- Increased taxes (tariffs) for goods made outside America
- Various tax breaks for individuals (no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, etc.)
It seems to me like the tariffs will hit as soon as the law is put in place, whereas the tax breaks won't show until the next tax season. Reviving American manufacturing will take a few years, minimum; until then, the prices for things like semiconductors will be higher, since they're made outside the country.
To be clear, I'm not saying these are bad ideas -- I do think it will benefit the economy in the long term. I just want to know if I should prepare for a short-term crunch, or if I'm reading the tea leaves wrong.
Toyota has a new pickup truck, it is currently being sold in 3rd world countries, and it is only $13K. If Toyota can get a barebones, basic pickup into the American market then it would sell zillions of them. Most Americans are tired of having to shell out $50K for a pickup truck to be used as a beater around a job site. If Ford and Chevy were smart they'd want to do the same thing. Isn't it better to sell a zillion $13K trucks than a few $50K trucks? It would keep their assembly lines running at full tilt, keep their employees EMPLOYED, and make the Americans want to purchase Ford and Chevy trucks, enmass, again. Pickup trucks should not cost the same amount as a 1980's house!