Nate Silver’s Final Call Hours Before Polls Close – Will This Be His Most Accurate Prediction Yet?
(www.rightjournalism.com)
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It's his model's prediction. He's said his gut says Trump.
So he gets to be right either way.
Safest way to predict anything. If you say that you are totally sure and it turns out to be wrong that makes you look rather worse than saying there a very thin margin that seems to prefer that alternative. Too many "totally sure" wrongs and nobody cares what you might predict anymore.