Another pleasing article from the not so Independent!
When Donald Trump first came to the White House, he did so under rocky circumstances. Yes, he had beaten Democrats in the Blue Wall of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. But he also lost the popular vote — and Democrats had picked up Senate seats in Illinois and New Hampshire, as well as flipping a few seats in the House.
Paul Ryan, the speaker of the House at the time, would regularly say, “I haven’t seen the tweet,” when asked about Trump’s worst Twitter rants. Mitch McConnell would blow off anything Trump said as he turned the Senate into a judicial confirmation factory. John McCain famously voted down Trump’s planned repeal of Obamacare. Senate Republicans balked at his desire to get rid of the filibuster. After the January 6 riot, ten House Republicans voted to impeach Trump and seven Republican senators voted to convict him.
That won’t be the case this time. This time, Trump comes to Washington with an overwhelming mandate, having swept all seven battleground states. John McCain is dead. Mitt Romney will leave the Senate at the end of this year. Paul Ryan is out of politics and Liz Cheney is deemed a heretic. McConnell will leave his post as Republican leader at the end of this year, too.
In short, this will be a much more pliable Republican Congress.
As of right now, it’s unclear whether Democrats will flip the House of Representatives or Republicans will hold it. But it will likely come down to a narrow margin, as was the case in the last two Congresses.
Which is to say, if Republicans hold the House, Trump wins. If Democrats flip the House, he still wins — because he can pick off a few frontliners to vote for popular parts of his agenda.
Trump will have much more free rein to pass his legislative agenda and confirm judicial appointments. In 2017, he needed to dispatch Mike Pence to break a tie to confirm Betsy DeVos as education secretary. The existence of more mainstream Republicans meant that he could not pick his initial choice for labor secretary, Andrew Puzder.
And Trump has every reason to make the case that people have to fall in line. He will likely target Democrats who won in districts who voted for him to go along with him. Republican elders in the Senate can no longer brush off his commands during press conferences now that they realize the party is not on loan to him; instead, they work for a party he decisively owns.
It doesn't matter in the end. u/#q1127 u/#q1128 u/#q970