Based on the available data:
2009-2016: At least 133 members announced they would not seek re-election (with missing data for 2009-2011). Assuming an average similar to the known years, we might estimate around 180-200 total retirements for this period.
2017-2024: 349 members announced they would not seek re-election.
Analysis:
Volume of Retirements: There's a clear and substantial increase in retirements from 2017 to 2024 compared to the previous period. Even if we generously estimate the missing data from 2009-2011, the number of retirements for 2017-2024 is significantly higher.
Average per Year:
2009-2016: Even with an optimistic estimation, the average would be around 25-33 per year (180-200 divided by 8 years).
2017-2024: The average is 43.6 per year.
Unusualness:
Yes, the numbers from 2017 to 2024 are unusually high compared to the earlier period. This period's retirement rate is notably above historical norms when we compare it to the known data of the previous cycle, even accounting for the missing years.
Possible Explanations:
Political Climate: The period from 2017 to 2024 was marked by intense political polarization, multiple high-profile events (like impeachments, the Capitol riot, and a global health crisis), which might have led to increased retirements due to political fatigue or seeking other opportunities.
Demographics: An aging Congress might naturally lead to more retirements as members reach an age where they might choose to retire.
Public Sentiment: There's been a growing negative perception of Congress's effectiveness, which might influence decisions to retire.
Health Concerns: Post-2020, health considerations, especially related to the global health crisis, could have prompted more retirements.
Comparative Context: Even if we consider the peak retirement years before 2017, like 2018 with 55 retirements, the sustained high number across the 2017-2024 period indicates a shift or trend not seen in the earlier timeframe.
In summary, the numbers from 2017 to 2024 are indeed unusual when compared to the 2009-2016 period, suggesting a notable increase in congressional turnover during the later years.
Edit: Thanks for the sticky!
Now let's look at the numbers for governors -
Total: 25 governors announced they would not seek re-election or were term-limited from 2017 to 2024.
Total: 8 governors announced they would not seek re-election or were term-limited from 2009 to 2016.
The numbers for 2017-2024 are indeed unusually higher compared to 2009-2016, indicating a significant increase in governors choosing not to seek re-election or being forced out by term limits.
Wow, excellent work to gather this up! I have often wondered about this; we all sensed there was a growing rash of retirements over these past years but I hadn't seen it quantified ever before. I wonder how it accounts for No-Name and Feinstein or if they are left out.
In any case, using the more liberal figure of 180》》349 !?!? Yikes. A 100% increase would he 360, so we are not very far off from double the normal level. Something is definitely rotten in Denmark.
I'd like to run the same time periods but look at the average retirement # for CEOs instead, I bet you would find a similar uptick, maybe even some correlation in data points.
This Q post always reminds me of a moment from 2020, I believe it was post-November 5th, and all the fences were going up and bigtime numbers of National Guard were going to D.C. or had already started to arrive.
Pelosi is being walked over to the podium escorted by a young woman dressed something like a U.S. Marshal and she's very close in, whispering to Nancy as she goes up. And you could hear Pelosi's response get picked up by the microphone. "Don't worry, I won't."
Anyone else remember that little moment?
This is one area that I disagree with Q WHOLEHEARTEDLY, we need to prosecute them all. He also said that only 60% of the truth will come out because the public can't handle it. If we don't reveal 100% of the truth it will SURELY HAPPEN AGAIN!!!
Agreed. The earth needs to be scorched, for the good of humanity going forth. Less than that and it will be less than a generation before they are telling us what happened didn't happen. And people will believe it.