I think it could be better than that. You are computing the average deportation rate per day, as though it was a level line across the 50 days (658/day). In other words, assuming a constant deportation rate. But if you think of the rate as growing linearly with time, it means a start at zero but an end at 50 days of about 1,312/day. If this continues at a rate increase of about (26.24/day)/day, the end rate at 365 days would be about 9577/day and the total deport would be 1,748,000.
I penciled this out, but would have preferred to prove it with a graph. Please check my math. It hinges on keeping up the deportation acceleration rate. Since the total deport is then a function of time squared, the result after 4 years might be on the order of 16,000,000. I apologize for possible errors, but I'm sitting here with a pen and notepad and my cell phone calculator, doing some of it in my head.
If this trend can be sustained, it is possible that the rate will begin to turn over and slow down by the end of the third year, as the available population of illegals will have dwindled so much, they will be harder to find. But, on the other hand, the success of the campaign may prompt an increasing self-deportation rate. It all becomes a lovely exercise in differential equations.
It is all a matter of figuring out how to make it happen.
First thought. At this rate it's about 240k /yr.
Their goal is to deport 500k a month.
Sounds good to me.
I think it could be better than that. You are computing the average deportation rate per day, as though it was a level line across the 50 days (658/day). In other words, assuming a constant deportation rate. But if you think of the rate as growing linearly with time, it means a start at zero but an end at 50 days of about 1,312/day. If this continues at a rate increase of about (26.24/day)/day, the end rate at 365 days would be about 9577/day and the total deport would be 1,748,000.
I penciled this out, but would have preferred to prove it with a graph. Please check my math. It hinges on keeping up the deportation acceleration rate. Since the total deport is then a function of time squared, the result after 4 years might be on the order of 16,000,000. I apologize for possible errors, but I'm sitting here with a pen and notepad and my cell phone calculator, doing some of it in my head.
If this trend can be sustained, it is possible that the rate will begin to turn over and slow down by the end of the third year, as the available population of illegals will have dwindled so much, they will be harder to find. But, on the other hand, the success of the campaign may prompt an increasing self-deportation rate. It all becomes a lovely exercise in differential equations.
It is all a matter of figuring out how to make it happen.