The Oil price is very sensitive to unrest, especially in oil-producing countries, who seem to mysteriously attract military and insurgent activities. So, war tends to send the global price up, especially blockades. Even the 'threat' of war in an oil-country can send the price up - hence the constant spook and lame demonstration activity - which is a blatantly transparent attempt to make a quick buck, IMO. One can track that stuff just about to the hour when news breaks.
The fact that the price is dropping, means that more oil is coming on-line in the market - or it can somtimes indicate a coming recession - which would mean that there would be less demand in the 'future'. So, the gamblers, if you like, are predicting a recession.
The sensible thing to do in this chess-game, is to smooth a bunch of ruffled war-feathers (i.e. reduce warring), BUT keep MIC running, to stock up on new amaze-balls weapons - i.e. announce a TRILLION dollar spend) and get on with using lots of the luberrly stuff for the sake of civilians (i.e.make MOAR factories and use MOAR oil). The risk is that spending more on weapons and military means some may accuse one of war-mongering. It's a triksy game.
To the second part: The difference between Oil and Gas-for-the-pumps, AKA petrol prices.
They are disconnected by refining and shipping costs. It's a 'lag' depending on how much oil is still sitting in the tanks from the 'higher' price - that needs to be processed first (and yes, they keep track of the age of tanks, because it goes off, and settles like molasses just with ambient temperatures). The price will drop when the 'new' oil starts coming online. I disagree that it will be automatic - that's a pipe dream. Those guys have their eyes on their fries, and know exactly which tank has the 'new oil. Also, reduced refining and shipping costs act as a "secondary bonus" when the price actually drops at the pump, because it lowers the cost of production and shipping, obviously.
Re - the first part of your question:
The Oil price is very sensitive to unrest, especially in oil-producing countries, who seem to mysteriously attract military and insurgent activities. So, war tends to send the global price up, especially blockades. Even the 'threat' of war in an oil-country can send the price up - hence the constant spook and lame demonstration activity - which is a blatantly transparent attempt to make a quick buck, IMO. One can track that stuff just about to the hour when news breaks.
The fact that the price is dropping, means that more oil is coming on-line in the market - or it can somtimes indicate a coming recession - which would mean that there would be less demand in the 'future'. So, the gamblers, if you like, are predicting a recession.
The sensible thing to do in this chess-game, is to smooth a bunch of ruffled war-feathers (i.e. reduce warring), BUT keep MIC running, to stock up on new amaze-balls weapons - i.e. announce a TRILLION dollar spend) and get on with using lots of the luberrly stuff for the sake of civilians (i.e.make MOAR factories and use MOAR oil). The risk is that spending more on weapons and military means some may accuse one of war-mongering. It's a triksy game.
To the second part: The difference between Oil and Gas-for-the-pumps, AKA petrol prices.
They are disconnected by refining and shipping costs. It's a 'lag' depending on how much oil is still sitting in the tanks from the 'higher' price - that needs to be processed first (and yes, they keep track of the age of tanks, because it goes off, and settles like molasses just with ambient temperatures). The price will drop when the 'new' oil starts coming online. I disagree that it will be automatic - that's a pipe dream. Those guys have their eyes on their fries, and know exactly which tank has the 'new oil. Also, reduced refining and shipping costs act as a "secondary bonus" when the price actually drops at the pump, because it lowers the cost of production and shipping, obviously.