This is more of an exercise, like an informal office betting pool. At what point do you think Trump will invoke the insurrection act, given he has satisfied the parameters?
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Insurection act drops when the violence starts. The violence wont start until ice really puts the operation into overdrive. That is when tampon tim looses total control of the situation and trump has to save the good people of Minnesota from the violent rebellion. As of right now, only law enforcement is targeted. Your regular person is not in any danger.