COMEX Silver Delivery Crisis: 21 Days Until March First Notice Day
The COMEX silver market is showing unprecedented stress as we approach March 2026 delivery. Using official CME warehouse reports and delivery data, this analysis reveals a systematic draining of physical silver that may result in a delivery shortfall within weeks.
THE CORE PROBLEM:
As of February 5, 2026:
March 2026 open interest: 429 million ounces
COMEX registered silver inventory: 103.5 million ounces (and falling)
February 2026 delivery rate: 98% (18.72M oz delivered from 19.11M oz open interest)
Inventory drainage rate: 785,000 ounces per day
January 2026 deliveries: 49.4 million ounces (7.27x the 2024 level)
If March 2026 sees even 25% of contracts stand for delivery, COMEX would need 107 million ounces - potentially more than will be available by first notice day (February 27). If the delivery rate matches January-February intensity (50-70%), we're looking at demands for 200-300 million ounces against available inventory of 85-103 million ounces.
KEY FINDINGS:
The 2025 Acceleration:
Total COMEX silver deliveries doubled from 203 million ounces in 2024 to 474 million ounces in 2025. Every single month in 2025 saw higher deliveries than the same month in 2024. This wasn't a one-time event - it was a systematic shift toward physical delivery.
The January 2026 Warning:
January delivered 49.4 million ounces - 4.17 times January 2025's level and 7.27 times January 2024. This occurred in a historically minor delivery month, indicating front-running behavior as market participants secured physical silver before March.
The February 2026 Smoking Gun:
As of early February, 18.72 million ounces have been called for delivery from February open interest of 19.11 million ounces - a 98% delivery rate. This is not a functioning futures market where contracts typically roll forward. This is a physical allocation mechanism.
The Inventory Collapse:
COMEX registered silver has fallen from 167.7 million ounces in October 2025 to 103.5 million ounces in February 2026 - a 38% decline in just over three months. The drainage rate has accelerated to 785,000 ounces per day. If this continues through February 27 (March first notice day), only 85 million ounces may be available
Summary from Clive Thompson's Video:
COMEX Silver Delivery Crisis: 21 Days Until March First Notice Day
The COMEX silver market is showing unprecedented stress as we approach March 2026 delivery. Using official CME warehouse reports and delivery data, this analysis reveals a systematic draining of physical silver that may result in a delivery shortfall within weeks.
THE CORE PROBLEM:
As of February 5, 2026:
March 2026 open interest: 429 million ounces COMEX registered silver inventory: 103.5 million ounces (and falling) February 2026 delivery rate: 98% (18.72M oz delivered from 19.11M oz open interest) Inventory drainage rate: 785,000 ounces per day January 2026 deliveries: 49.4 million ounces (7.27x the 2024 level)
If March 2026 sees even 25% of contracts stand for delivery, COMEX would need 107 million ounces - potentially more than will be available by first notice day (February 27). If the delivery rate matches January-February intensity (50-70%), we're looking at demands for 200-300 million ounces against available inventory of 85-103 million ounces.
KEY FINDINGS:
The 2025 Acceleration:
Total COMEX silver deliveries doubled from 203 million ounces in 2024 to 474 million ounces in 2025. Every single month in 2025 saw higher deliveries than the same month in 2024. This wasn't a one-time event - it was a systematic shift toward physical delivery.
The January 2026 Warning:
January delivered 49.4 million ounces - 4.17 times January 2025's level and 7.27 times January 2024. This occurred in a historically minor delivery month, indicating front-running behavior as market participants secured physical silver before March.
The February 2026 Smoking Gun:
As of early February, 18.72 million ounces have been called for delivery from February open interest of 19.11 million ounces - a 98% delivery rate. This is not a functioning futures market where contracts typically roll forward. This is a physical allocation mechanism.
The Inventory Collapse:
COMEX registered silver has fallen from 167.7 million ounces in October 2025 to 103.5 million ounces in February 2026 - a 38% decline in just over three months. The drainage rate has accelerated to 785,000 ounces per day. If this continues through February 27 (March first notice day), only 85 million ounces may be available