The context may be less about Africa and more about China. It’s no state secret that China’s economy is under real pressure, including a prolonged property sector downturn, persistent and high local government debt, slowing GDP growth, and weak domestic consumption.

Those challenges have led Beijing to ramp up capital controls and financial risk management, both of which are indicators of a markedly different economy than the one for which China became world-renowned.

In short, China’s days of double-digit expansion are long gone. A new malaise has set in that isn’t easily overcome. Chinese authorities are increasingly focused on stabilizing employment, preventing financial contagion, and managing demographic decline.

When capital gets tight at home, overseas mega-projects become harder to justify—especially in politically complex or financially risky environments. Thus, Africa isn’t being punished—it’s being reprioritized.

Even some critics of the “debt trap diplomacy” narrative note that China has become far more cautious as a creditor in recent years.