The Thucydides Trap is a political theory stating that when a rapidly rising power threatens to displace an established ruling power, the resulting structural tension often leads to a catastrophic, unintended war. It is most famously used by Xi, to describe modern U.S.-China relations, where China is the rising power and the United States is the ruling power.
The Greek Story: Athens vs. Sparta
The term was coined by American political scientist Graham Allison, who drew inspiration from the ancient Greek historian Thucydides and his account of the History of the Peloponnesian War.I n the 5th century BC, the Greek world was dominated by two mega-powers: Sparta, the established hegemon with the most formidable land army, and Athens, an emerging power experiencing a meteoric rise thanks to its booming naval empire.
As Athenian power, wealth, and influence grew aggressively, Sparta became paralyzed by anxiety that it would lose its top position. Regarding the cause of the resulting devastating 27-year war, Thucydides famously wrote:
"What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta."
The Core Lessons In the classical Greek story, are that it was a lethal combination of structural shifting, unyielding pride, fear of the unknown, and a web of stubborn alliances that trapped both nations in an avoidable war.
However, modern historians and Allison emphasize that the "trap" is meant to serve as a warning rather than an absolute prophecy.
Watched the interview. I have to concur with Heng He. What I will say in response to what you stated, is that Heng is right. There is only one way for the CCP to go, and that is down. Communism always ends the same way. Xi himself is a hard core Maoist. He really believes in Communist rule and that it is a superior system. Like many of the socialist minded loons in our own country, they believe that the reasons it never worked before is because socialism wasn't done right. There is no right way to do Communism or socialism - period.
Have you read any of Xi's writings? He is bought in 100%. When Xi took power he felt China was headed in the wrong direction and wanted to return the country back to a more pure form of Communism with Chinese characteristics. Even though his changes have brought the country and the CCP to its knees, he would never admit that. Yes, he is destroying the country. That was not his intention, but it is the result. Not because of some agreement with other leaders like Trump. Xi hates the US because of what we represent. He firmly believes that Communism is the only way forward which in the end will destroy Communist China. He believes that democratic governance is too chaotic and messy. He truly believes his own propaganda.
Back to what I said before about why Trump was throwing Xi a lifeline. I think I understand why Trump did that. Never interfere with an enemy in the process of destroying themselves. Many of the problems we face in our current world can be laid at the feet of the CCP. Xi is doing a good job at bringing it all down. But that is not his intension. Xi is neither that noble or smart. But like all members of the CCP, they have no reverse gear nor are they willing to right the ship. They can't. That especially includes Xi. The others will not act against Xi to remove him because they also want to preserve the party and are hesitant. So, they will all go down with the ship rather than make real political change. They don't know how and they are too invested in the system they have.