The 40k ft View & WHY The Iran Ceasefire is DOA: The Iran negotiations are NOT ABOUT IRAN. They are about CHINA. The Straits will stay closed — strategically— until such time as China gives in to Trump’s demands over trade issues. No oil to China. Because CCP China ≠ 'Secret Fren'. Sorry.
(twitter.com)
🥫Sauce In Comments🥫
As of May 2026, China has significantly increased its imports of Russian oil, driven by regional instability in the Middle East and a deepening "no-limits" partnership with Moscow. Russian oil exports to China surged by 35% in the first quarter of 2026. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Key Drivers of Growth
Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Conflicts involving Israel, the U.S., and Iran have disrupted traditional supply routes, making land-based or northern sea-route Russian oil a safer alternative.
Deep Discounts: China continues to capitalize on discounted Russian barrels, which often trade between $9 and $11 below the global Brent benchmark.
Strategic Stockpiling: Beijing is aggressively filling its strategic reserves, amassing an estimated 1.2 billion barrels to weather potential global supply shocks.
Filling the India Vacuum: As India faces pressure to comply with U.S. sanctions and seeks its own trade deals, Chinese "teapot" (independent) refiners have stepped in to buy surplus Russian crude. [6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11]
Trade Impact & Reliance
Top Supplier: Russia is currently China's largest crude oil supplier, providing roughly 20% of its total imports.
Payment & Infrastructure: The two nations are moving toward more overland pipeline flows (like the ESPO pipeline) and settling trades in Chinese Yuan to bypass Western financial systems.
Economic Lifeline: China has purchased over $370 billion in Russian fossil fuels since early 2022, providing critical hard currency for Russia's economy. [1, 8, 12, 13, 14]
Recent Monthly Performance (2026)
January/February: Seaborne imports reached an all-time high of approximately 2.08 million barrels per day.
April: While volume fell slightly month-on-month, the value of imports rose 16.2% due to shifting market conditions and rising global demand for Russian barrels. [6, 7]
💡 The "Teapot" Factor: Small, independent refiners in China's Shandong province are the primary drivers of this trend. They are more risk-tolerant regarding sanctions than large state-owned firms and rely on Russian discounts to maintain their profit margins. [4, 9, 15, 16]
[1] https://www.reuters.com
[2] https://caliber.az
[3] https://www.marketscreener.com
[4] https://www.reuters.com
[5] https://www.facebook.com
[6] https://www.reuters.com
[7] https://www.scmp.com
[8] https://oilprice.com
[9] https://oilprice.com
[10] https://www.youtube.com
[11] https://oilprice.com
[12] https://www.dw.com
[13] https://www.statista.com
[14] https://www.scmp.com
[15] https://www.iranintl.com
[16] https://www.reuters.com
...copied/pasted AI Drivel...
...use diligence...
Thanks AshlandDog!
'' Thanks AshlandDog!''
...where we howl 1, we howl all...
Here's the (supposed) latest Iran deal details in which many disheartened X commenters (because they don't understand what's actually going on) are disappointed.
The OP tweet is a reply to said details.
https://x.com/sghasseminejad/status/2058318994336014348?s=46
I understand this post won't find much agreement with the big names/mods here because "China ≠ 'Secret fren'" is quite unpopular (for now).
WWG1WGA!
No need to set up a straw man. We all know that China ≠ CCP, also that CCP is not our friend nor China's friend. Trump has often distinguished between China and the CCP. We get it
Q only asked what if Xi was working with WH, never asking if the CCP was. Xi may be working with Trump, which is still wide open at this point, having little public evidence beyond Qs question, but still a possibility.
China, under Xi's leadership:
• Has been caught trying to steal our elections.
• Has been caught with spies acting as drivers for senators.
• Has been caught with spies acting as mayors of our cities.
• Has been caught implanting kill switches(!) within our major infrastructure i.e. electric substation transformers et al.
• Has systematically undermined the strategic (i.e. long term) security of the United States.
• Has massively compromised a large swath of our politicians.
• Has facilitated the importation of deadly poison (fentanyl) into our country, killing hundreds of thousands of Americans.
• Has sent countless military age men across our southern border. (infiltration)
• Has bought up (often barren/useless) land near our military bases.
Trump:
'Xi told me they don't have a drug problem in China because they have quick trials and the death penalty for anyone involved in making/distributing drugs.'
Xi put a halt to the precursor chemicals going to the cartels and into the United States during Trump's first term.
Biden got in and it started up again.
It continues to this day even though, according to Trump's own words AND Xi's previous actions, Xi DOES HAVE THE POWER TO STOP IT.
Fentanyl importation is 'part of the plan'??
Highly doubtful.
Q said many times that china is a problem
Q TOLD US several times:
"Disinformation is real."
"Disinformation is necessary."
u/#q787
u/#q4925
Everyone was 'team Christopher Wray'…
Right up until they weren't!
5:5?
u/mods any idea when we can fix the down vote button so we can all see how many frens don't understand what to two above Q drops mean?
It doesn't mean Q's Xi comment was "necessary disinformation" per se...
But it DOES demonstrate Q falsely labeled an ENEMY as Ally...
Because disinformation is necessary.
Inerdasting. Thank you Ash.
Is it?
Yes that is good
Iran is bad
But China is more bad
Someone sees the big picture.
it is not about secret fren.
It is about breaking the financialization stranglehold CoL has.
True, china is a problem, but only if and when another item is put forward. Think in terms of timing:
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt34378301/
Jack Ryan: Ghost War 2026 film directed by Andrew Bernstein
Its bad. ...I know. But note the year: 2026. And what does it celebrate?
Clowns and Midget 6. where clowns are nothing without Midget 6.
Now, think of the post catsfive posted out of 'Tore says'- stable: What does she map? Exactly!
https://x.com/idontexistTore/status/2058140401433727179
What are the really doing / supporting?
Now tie in Lutniks talk at Davos: These glowies say: YOU NEED OUR FINANCIALIZATION.
What is Trump doing: breaking that.
Have a nice Sunday!