So, what kind of guarantees is the Islamic Regime willing to offer? None. They cannot give any ground to Trump on any point. Besides, they have never abided by any agreement in the past. They have no plans of to do so in the future. So who's the untrustworthy one? There is more to the story about their demands and why.
The regime cannot agree to anything Trump puts on the table, because if they do, it will appear as surrender to the Americans and that is a betrayal of the highest order. Their radical hardline base of support, inside and outside of the government, will turn against them if anyone caves on any point. This support is critical because it is the supporters that give the regime its ideological legitimacy to govern. Any statements made that sound like there is a willingness to make a deal that gives away even a little, are later quickly retracted and changed after facing the blowback.
The regime is fractured and their positions are not secure or stable. Several factions are jockeying for control. The Islamic Republic is bordering on being declared a failed state. Who can actually make the decisions? At the moment, it doesn't appear that anyone actually speaks for the government that has any authority to make decisions. The one the regime claims to be in charge, there has been no proof of life evidence that he even exists. So far, it's all heresay.
The regime does not fear the majority of non-radical Iranians - the regime's security forces and proxies will simply shoot them because these regular Iranians fear dying and they are unarmed for the most part. But the hardline jihadi supporters in Iran, that is a different story. That bunch of radical durka jihadis have no reservations about dying to save Islam's honor against those they consider traitors to the revolution and their god. Their discontent is also rising and they are publicly questioning who is really in charge and making the decisions. If they find out that their beloved supreme cardboard leader is not in charge, or he is found to be dead, it's going to get ugly. Many in this group are armed.
The regime for years has been feeding this jihadi group, and the world, a steady stream of radical ideological revolutionary propaganda. This is why CentCom constantly has had to post fact checks on the events to set the record straight. Even Western Media amplifies the regime's propaganda in the press and runs with it. The regime's fake news is circulated on social media like it's truth. Then it is recirculated within Iran to further validate their narrative to their base. See, we are winning and even the Westerners say so. The Dems, fake MAGA , and turncoat Reps, also promote this regime propaganda all over social media and influence platforms. The talking points are the same as the regime's; the US is losing, Trump has no plan, the damage wasn't that bad, blah, blah, blah. After so many years of putting that BS out to keep their base happy and to influence the West, the regime is now backed into a corner to live up to the narrative they have spun.
No doubt some of the pragmatists want to make a deal so they can survive to come back and fight another day, but if they do, then internally they fall apart and are labeled traitors. They are in a no win situation. There are cracks forming within the IRGC itself and it is becoming more fractured as time goes on. If they make a deal, that could set off a total split within the IRGC between the military pragmatists, that are more interested in power and survival, and the ideological hardliners who will go down with the ship rather than capitulate. They would also lose the support of their child, the hardcore jihadi Basij force that is more in line with the ideological hardline public and some in the regime. The Basij are part of the regime's internal security forces to control the rest of the Iranians.
The regime has never been weaker than it is right now. The negotiations and the blockade are doing more damage to weaken the regime than did the bombings - even though the strikes severely damaged them on the ground. The situation has gone from direct kinetic military action, that united the regime against a common outside enemy, and it has transitioned to an internal economic, psychological, and ideological civil war. Trump is holding the cards if he can hold his ground in the face of international and domestic pressure. The negotiations are part of that psychological operation and it is working. There are no timetables as to when the crap actually hits the fan. But that is the direction things are heading.
So, what kind of guarantees is the Islamic Regime willing to offer? None. They cannot give any ground to Trump on any point. Besides, they have never abided by any agreement in the past. They have no plans of to do so in the future. So who's the untrustworthy one? There is more to the story about their demands and why.
The regime cannot agree to anything Trump puts on the table, because if they do, it will appear as surrender to the Americans and that is a betrayal of the highest order. Their radical hardline base of support, inside and outside of the government, will turn against them if anyone caves on any point. This support is critical because it is the supporters that give the regime its ideological legitimacy to govern. Any statements made that sound like there is a willingness to make a deal that gives away even a little, are later quickly retracted and changed after facing the blowback.
The regime is fractured and their positions are not secure or stable. Several factions are jockeying for control. The Islamic Republic is bordering on being declared a failed state. Who can actually make the decisions? At the moment, it doesn't appear that anyone actually speaks for the government that has any authority to make decisions. The one the regime claims to be in charge, there has been no proof of life evidence that he even exists. So far, it's all heresay.
The regime does not fear the majority of non-radical Iranians - the regime's security forces and proxies will simply shoot them because these regular Iranians fear dying and they are unarmed for the most part. But the hardline jihadi supporters in Iran, that is a different story. That bunch of radical durka jihadis have no reservations about dying to save Islam's honor against those they consider traitors to the revolution and their god. Their discontent is also rising and they are publicly questioning who is really in charge and making the decisions. If they find out that their beloved supreme cardboard leader is not in charge, or he is found to be dead, it's going to get ugly. Many in this group are armed.
The regime for years has been feeding this jihadi group, and the world, a steady stream of radical ideological revolutionary propaganda. This is why CentCom constantly has had to post fact checks on the events to set the record straight. Even Western Media amplifies the regime's propaganda in the press and runs with it. The regime's fake news is circulated on social media like it's truth. Then it is recirculated within Iran to further validate their narrative to their base. See, we are winning and even the Westerners say so. The Dems, fake MAGA , and turncoat Reps, also promote this regime propaganda all over social media and influence platforms. The talking points are the same as the regime's; the US is losing, Trump has no plan, the damage wasn't that bad, blah, blah, blah. After so many years of putting that BS out to keep their base happy and to influence the West, the regime is now backed into a corner to live up to the narrative they have spun.
No doubt some of the pragmatists want to make a deal so they can survive to come back and fight another day, but if they do, then internally they fall apart and are labeled traitors. They are in a no win situation. There are cracks forming within the IRGC itself and it is becoming more fractured as time goes on. If they make a deal, that could set off a total split within the IRGC between the military pragmatists, that are more interested in power and survival, and the ideological hardliners who will go down with the ship rather than capitulate. They would also lose the support of their child, the hardcore jihadi Basij force that is more in line with the ideological hardline public and some in the regime. The Basij are part of the regime's internal security forces to control the rest of the Iranians.
The regime has never been weaker than it is right now. The negotiations and the blockade are doing more damage to weaken the regime than did the bombings - even though the strikes severely damaged them on the ground. The situation has gone from direct kinetic military action, that united the regime against a common outside enemy, and it has transitioned to an internal economic, psychological, and ideological civil war. Trump is holding the cards if he can hold his ground in the face of international and domestic pressure. The negotiations are part of that psychological operation and it is working. There are no timetables as to when the crap actually hits the fan. But that is the direction things are heading.