This MOU guarantees nothing. It is not a final deal. The terms still have to be negotiated over the next 60 days. The Islamic Republic is standing firm that they will not give up their stockpile or their nuclear program - at least according to them. The only thing that was agreed to is to continue discussing it and come up with a possible framework. Nothing at this moment is concrete. The IR has NEVER lived up to any agreement they have ever made with the US or the IAEA. Why would it be any different now? Not sure why the administration continues to sell this as though it's a done deal - it is not.
In fact, several of the IRGC's nuclear sites have been hardened during the ceasefire - at least what's left of them after they were hit with GBU-57s. There are some publicly available satellite images that show the IRGC moving by truck convoy what appears to be the nuclear material 2 days prior to Epic Fury starting. They moved it to Pickaxe Mt. which is currently out of range for the US bunker busters in our arsenal. Even though other sites were hit, Pickaxe has remained untouched. Either there is something still at those other sites, or the regime is doing a decoy move because they know we are watching. There is however a bunker buster in the pipeline being designed with Pickaxe in mind - but the earliest it may be available is next year. It doesn't appear that the IRGC wants to give it up and the one big leverage the US had, the blockade, is being dismantled. But hey, anything can happen over the next 60 days, or not. So, I wouldn't be popping the champagne corks just yet.
This MOU guarantees nothing. It is not a final deal. The terms still have to be negotiated over the next 60 days. The Islamic Republic is standing firm that they will not give up their stockpile or their nuclear program - at least according to them. The only thing that was agreed to is to continue discussing it and come up with a possible framework. Nothing at this moment is concrete. The IR has NEVER lived up to any agreement they have ever made with the US or the IAEA. Why would it be any different now? Not sure why the administration continues to sell this as though it's a done deal - it is not.
In fact, several of the IRGC's nuclear sites have been hardened during the ceasefire - at least what's left of them after they were hit with GBU-57s. There are some publicly available satellite images that show the IRGC moving by truck convoy what appears to be the nuclear material 2 days prior to Epic Fury starting. They moved it to Pickaxe Mt. which is currently out of range for the US bunker busters in our arsenal. Even though other sites were hit, Pickaxe has remained untouched. Either there is something still at those other sites, or the regime is doing a decoy move because they know we are watching. There is however a bunker buster in the pipeline being designed with Pickaxe in mind - but the earliest it may be available is next year. It doesn't appear that the IRGC wants to give it up and the one big leverage the US had, the blockade, is being dismantled. But hey, anything can happen over the next 60 days, or not. So, I wouldn't be popping the champagne corks just yet.