The CCP space junk is 6h18m from landing, travelling at over 38 thousand MPH and 146 km above the surface - and falling
(orbit.ing-now.com)
?? Theory ??
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Absolute tosh. If it is going up and down, then it is a controlled attack. Falling debris can be calculated easily.
Not if you don't know the ballistic coefficient of the pieces as they tear apart. Or the drag vectors due to shape vs. center of gravity.