The CCP space junk is 6h18m from landing, travelling at over 38 thousand MPH and 146 km above the surface - and falling
(orbit.ing-now.com)
?? Theory ??
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The density of the air at that altitude is partly dependent on solar radiation. Since that fluctuates, they have a hard time determining how much drag is acting on it as it orbits. At least that's what they tell us.
Right on!