Some context from a contractor:

Smallish site condos in my area are selling at 300k to 400k. Were talking production homes on maintenance free postage stamp lots that are about 1600 sf average (around 40 by 40) with a 2 car garage and concrete driveways only 20 feet long by 16 wide. Tiny. Hardly bigger than a mobile home.

They do have fully finished basements but otherwise no frills. No big entryways with transom and sidelights. False dormers only. Faux wood trim. Decent enough cabinetry but nothing special.

Custom homes are easily 750k.

And still they cant keep them in stock. One of my employees has been trying to buy a house for his new family for 2 years. Every time he makes an offer he gets outbid. People are buying with cash up to 20k over asking for the more attractive properties.

One of my main builders raised his prices 20k per home just to slow down sales a bit. None of the trades can keep up. Its freaking red hot here in SE Michigan. Hotter than the dotcom boom. Way hotter. Even ridiculous lumber prices and appliance backlogs havent slowed home building down.

And I cant find help. Laborers have all wanted cash because they wont give up covid benefits and skilled tradesmen are commanding 30 to 50 an hour and expect 2k signing bonuses.

Its crazy.

Im waiting for the crash. Im expecting a crash. Im planning for the crash. Every extra penny the company makes right now is going to pay down debt. I wont be caught with my pants down.