But the supposed AF1 photos don’t really cut it for me.
You have a good point, i want to try and be as unbiased as possible.
The Q pic does not prove it was from AF1, or what time it was taken. Unless we can find social media posts from the same day of ppl filming the same cloud pattern, which we haven't.
If Q is a LARP then they had to pay someone to go on a flight in that area, or charter a small plane, or somehow find a picture that was never posted on the internet before. As Tin Eye shows the Q pic has never been on the internet before Q posted it.
And i would agree with you, that isn't impossible for a LARP to do. Just a lot of effort.
I have always been interested in smoking gun proof that Q MUST be an intelligence agent.
Q mentioned John McCain in 33 posts before his death, so here is my go at working out the probability of it being a random guess.
1,440 mins in a day, and 30 days in a month. So 1,440 * 30 == 43,200
But since Q made 33 posts about McCain, we can reduce the odds and divide by 33, since the Q community would've claimed this coincidence was impressive if it had been ANY of the 33 Q posts about McCain.
43,200 / 33 == 1,309
So that's a 1 in 1,309 chance of this timing coincidence being random, which means a 99.92% chance it ISN'T random.
Here is twitter proof that Q posted this before McCain's death, and didn't just alter/backdate the timestamps after he died.
What's ur opinion? Please feel free to criticize my methods at trying to work out the probability.
I can already think of 1 flaw. I haven't taken into account the other 5,000 Q posts.
Let's say hypothetically Q made 10,000,000 posts, in that case i would concede this was random, since with that many attempts you're bound to get a lucky "1 in a 1,000" guess correct eventually.
However Q only made 5,000 posts. Since there are 1,440 minutes in a day, we should expect an average of 4 Q posts with that exact minute. 8 of them do. And we should expect 0.11 posts to have the minute and that day of the month (25th at 6:28pm).
I’ve talked about McCain before, but I will take a look at your post and respond in the near future. Remind me if you don't see something in the near future, because your post deserves a response.
Flipping a quarter offers me a chance at both heads and tails. I know that I am just as likely to get heads as tails.
So if I flip a quarter 100 times, and 98 of those flips gave me a heads, then I know there's something weird going on, because I know that I should have "failed" a lot more of these trials.
We know all the variables in a coin flip, so we can calculate the probability of the coin flip.
The type of math you suggest isn't uncommon to Q theories, but here's an analog as to what you're doing:
You walk around the city at random for a week. Every time you find a coin that was made in 1976, you pick it up. You do not look for nor pay any attention to any other objects in the street.
At the end of the week, you tell me that you found 23 such coins from 1976. What are the odds of finding so many coins from that exact year? Surely it's impossible.
After all, quarters have been made since 1831. There's a few hundred million of these things in circulation at any time. If we do the math, the chances of finding 23 quarters from this particular year are very low, because there are SO MANY quarters out there, then it must mean something suspicious.
Except, of course, it doesn't in reality. Because you have no "fail" condition. You were looking for quarters that matched what you wanted to find. You weren't keeping track of the infinitely large number of opportunities when you could have found such a quarter and did not. You also know nothing about the variables of your city, the distribution of these quarters, and so forth.
This is the problem with trying to calculate probabilities of random events in the real world. Probability measurements always have to define exactly what they're measuring and keep track of the fail conditions.
But there are no fail conditions for Q. If a prophecy doesn't come true this month, then we'll try next month. Not this hour, maybe next hour. Not this year, maybe next year.
And for a guy who posts vague stuff for almost 5,000 posts over only a few years, then of COURSE you're going to be able to find some connections in timing.
Especially when the prophecy is, "One of this country's most famous senators who is one of only two Republicans who is resisting Trump and just shot down his healthcare strategy and is openly dying of cancer? Yeah, that guy will be in the news soon."
No duh.
This is why deltas will never be a convincing argument to nonbelievers. If someone is posting multiple times a day claiming that SOMETHING is going to happen, and you guys give Q the latitude to apply his prophecies over months and years, then that just looks like confirmation bias, nothing more.
If Hillary Clinton was actually arrested on October 30th of any year, would you be impressed or dismiss that as a random coincidence as well?
Because that is literally less odds than the McCain coincidence, only 1/365 chance of Q guessing a date of an arrest. Compared to 1/1,000 to guess the day and minute of McCain's death.
Clinton’s arrest is falsifiable and therefore can have functional statistical analysis done on it. She either is or is not arrested. Deltas make me skeptical, but I can still do analysis on the math, because again, the prediction is falsifiable.
The McCain thing is not. There is simply no way to run any math on that kind of problem. Predicting the likelihood of two random events coinciding together is impossible unless you can also calculate the possibility of them NOT coinciding, and since we’re dealing with a mathematically open system, I don’t see how that’s possible.
You have a good point, i want to try and be as unbiased as possible.
The Q pic does not prove it was from AF1, or what time it was taken. Unless we can find social media posts from the same day of ppl filming the same cloud pattern, which we haven't.
If Q is a LARP then they had to pay someone to go on a flight in that area, or charter a small plane, or somehow find a picture that was never posted on the internet before. As Tin Eye shows the Q pic has never been on the internet before Q posted it.
And i would agree with you, that isn't impossible for a LARP to do. Just a lot of effort.
What's your opinion on the Q post coinciding with John McCain's death to the EXACT minute and day of the month?
Q mentioned John McCain in 33 posts before his death, so here is my go at working out the probability of it being a random guess.
1,440 mins in a day, and 30 days in a month. So 1,440 * 30 == 43,200
But since Q made 33 posts about McCain, we can reduce the odds and divide by 33, since the Q community would've claimed this coincidence was impressive if it had been ANY of the 33 Q posts about McCain.
43,200 / 33 == 1,309
So that's a 1 in 1,309 chance of this timing coincidence being random, which means a 99.92% chance it ISN'T random.
Here is twitter proof that Q posted this before McCain's death, and didn't just alter/backdate the timestamps after he died.
What's ur opinion? Please feel free to criticize my methods at trying to work out the probability.
I can already think of 1 flaw. I haven't taken into account the other 5,000 Q posts.
Let's say hypothetically Q made 10,000,000 posts, in that case i would concede this was random, since with that many attempts you're bound to get a lucky "1 in a 1,000" guess correct eventually.
However Q only made 5,000 posts. Since there are 1,440 minutes in a day, we should expect an average of 4 Q posts with that exact minute. 8 of them do. And we should expect 0.11 posts to have the minute and that day of the month (25th at 6:28pm).
Only one post does, and it just so happens to be directly about John McCain.
I’ve talked about McCain before, but I will take a look at your post and respond in the near future. Remind me if you don't see something in the near future, because your post deserves a response.
Flipping a quarter offers me a chance at both heads and tails. I know that I am just as likely to get heads as tails.
So if I flip a quarter 100 times, and 98 of those flips gave me a heads, then I know there's something weird going on, because I know that I should have "failed" a lot more of these trials.
We know all the variables in a coin flip, so we can calculate the probability of the coin flip.
The type of math you suggest isn't uncommon to Q theories, but here's an analog as to what you're doing:
You walk around the city at random for a week. Every time you find a coin that was made in 1976, you pick it up. You do not look for nor pay any attention to any other objects in the street.
At the end of the week, you tell me that you found 23 such coins from 1976. What are the odds of finding so many coins from that exact year? Surely it's impossible.
After all, quarters have been made since 1831. There's a few hundred million of these things in circulation at any time. If we do the math, the chances of finding 23 quarters from this particular year are very low, because there are SO MANY quarters out there, then it must mean something suspicious.
Except, of course, it doesn't in reality. Because you have no "fail" condition. You were looking for quarters that matched what you wanted to find. You weren't keeping track of the infinitely large number of opportunities when you could have found such a quarter and did not. You also know nothing about the variables of your city, the distribution of these quarters, and so forth.
This is the problem with trying to calculate probabilities of random events in the real world. Probability measurements always have to define exactly what they're measuring and keep track of the fail conditions.
But there are no fail conditions for Q. If a prophecy doesn't come true this month, then we'll try next month. Not this hour, maybe next hour. Not this year, maybe next year.
And for a guy who posts vague stuff for almost 5,000 posts over only a few years, then of COURSE you're going to be able to find some connections in timing.
Especially when the prophecy is, "One of this country's most famous senators who is one of only two Republicans who is resisting Trump and just shot down his healthcare strategy and is openly dying of cancer? Yeah, that guy will be in the news soon."
No duh.
This is why deltas will never be a convincing argument to nonbelievers. If someone is posting multiple times a day claiming that SOMETHING is going to happen, and you guys give Q the latitude to apply his prophecies over months and years, then that just looks like confirmation bias, nothing more.
If Hillary Clinton was actually arrested on October 30th of any year, would you be impressed or dismiss that as a random coincidence as well?
Because that is literally less odds than the McCain coincidence, only 1/365 chance of Q guessing a date of an arrest. Compared to 1/1,000 to guess the day and minute of McCain's death.
Clinton’s arrest is falsifiable and therefore can have functional statistical analysis done on it. She either is or is not arrested. Deltas make me skeptical, but I can still do analysis on the math, because again, the prediction is falsifiable.
The McCain thing is not. There is simply no way to run any math on that kind of problem. Predicting the likelihood of two random events coinciding together is impossible unless you can also calculate the possibility of them NOT coinciding, and since we’re dealing with a mathematically open system, I don’t see how that’s possible.