There is water coming over the topside, while all drain pipes are open. Last year, that has not happened. Meaning, the water level is +185.

And there is more rain coming from the back lands ...

And then there is one other item that is often overlooked: wind. Wind can shift water from one end to the next, causing a sort of eb/flood scenario.

Last winter, we had a strong south westerly, and the width of the lake it only a mile or so. The water had receded laying bare the bottom up to a depth of 6 feet.

What happens when the wind is right? That would produce additional pressure on the top of the dam. https://www.windy.com/30.659/111.366?30.119,111.366,8

Right now, it is holding .....

Then you also have to take into account the bedrock .... being exposed to tectonic activity.

It's a dangerous situation that may change in a heartbeat.