https://news.yahoo.com/nothing-left-live-evergrande-meeting-174442622.html
The situation on the ground contradicts the reassuring headlines in the US. Evergrande is about to topple and start a chain reaction around the world. Blackrock will be significantly affected.
Before I ever read a Q post, I had concluded it was Trump's protectionist trade policy toward China that triggered the bribed/controlled Democrats and MSM to spaz out and desperately try to impeach him. I now see there were other reasons, but the China policy is still a main one. Evergrande is proof.
Now those policies -- along with anemic supply chains and shutting down illegal income streams from human trafficking and other criminal enterprises -- have resulted in cashflow problems for China. Their aggressive hoarding of real estate and loans has left them asset heavy and cash poor. This is what happened to Lehman Brothers in 2008. If you can imagine cash as the oil in an engine, China's engine is dry and the pistons are locking up.
This, I theorize, was one of the purposes behind the ridiculous $3.5 trillion infrastructure bill. You have to think of infrastructure bills and "stimulus" bills these days as Democrat slush funds. The money is never accounted after it changes hands. As Trump called out before he left office, the covid stimulus sent billions overseas to China and Pakistan. It's likely the infrastructure bill was going to give China the cashflow to get their engine unlocked.
Then consider how an authoritarian regime relies on state corporatism for its economy. In this economic model, insolvency of your largest corporations can leave the state with cashflow problems as well. It'll be interesting to see how woke our corporations and sports will be at after that. Also, when a despotic state has little cash, they eventually will have trouble paying their military. When the military eventually does not get paid, they coup your despotic ass.
Your views are well taken.
There is another side to currency you have not mentioned. There is a currency was going on, or rather, CCP and US are enthralled in a war that is fought in the financial arena (among others).
It is not so much CCP could not up the liquidity. It is a simple matter of printing it/ creating it. Let's consider one asset:
Asset 1 is the basis on which paper currency is produced. Let's say, a hundred paper yuan's. These go into circulation and change hands over and over again. This means that asset 1 can push a multitude of transactions.
On each transaction taxes are due, so in the end, the amount of currency decreases over time and ends up where it originated: with the CCP who created it. And if more currency is needed, Because without currency, trade stops when no currency is available, , it is a simple push on a button to create more. Asset 1 then can be burdened with several rounds of currency creation, without anyone noticing.
Asset 1 can be many things. Buildings, persons, a right to tax, a right to lease. Coincidentally, the CCP owns all the land on the mainland. People can only lease their plot. Infrastructure increases the value of land.
It is easy to see how currency creation and investment fuels the next round of what is now called quantitative easing (neologisms always tell you what the lie is!), or in short: flushing the market with cash.
However, the more currency comes into circulation, due to demand and supply, the value of the currency will suffer changes. Access to this currency can be restricted, to artificially keep the value higher. Or, access to it can be loosened, causing the value to drop, meaning, the amount of goods and services that can be bought with a unit of currency changes over time, up and down.
How can you wage a war against your major opponent via a currency war? Especially, when you try to maintain a peg to the currency of your opponent?
Enter the bought and paid for rinos and dems. IF they create 3.5 trillion extra in currency, it is easy to see, in order to maintain the peg, where the room to create 25 trillion yuan comes from.
When Trump said, the CCP was manipulating it's currency to maintain the peg, the CCP is forced to dance with the devil due to the peg. IF it wants to increase it's value against the currency of the opponent, it must follow a restrictive currency policy.
So, how do you increase the value of your own currency? By soliciting of the dems and the rinos to create vast amounts of currency in their denomination. Hence, the 3.5 trillion. And let's be fair, more is to come.
Meaning, that the CCP can look forward to upward pressure on the Yuan. WIth this pressure it gives the opportunity to create more liquidity to ease the markets.
This ties in with the political system. When one section of the financial market goes bad, the government has the liquidity to move in and stabilize.
Here is where it get's interesting. Despite the vast amounts of currency already created by the FRN crowd, the 3.5 trillion is on top of that. And the amazing part is, we see the EUR/FRN relation as now 1: 1.16. Not so long ago it was 1: 1.18. And in the beginning of the year: 1:1.23
Meaning, with the currency creation by the FRN crowd, we see the Euro losing steam. The only reason that can happen is when the Euro is creating more euro's for the financial system.
Remember, eventually, the BIS (Postal) is behind all of it, and orchestrates in collusion with the IMF to move closer to an SDR financed world.
And since the UPU is making sure every person is hooked up to their postal system for access to internet, government services, commerce and birth certificates it is easy to see why the need arises to stiffle competition and make the world a bit more predictable.
And being unpredictable is the most important accusation leveled against Trump. Unpredictable in a "rules based international order". What exactly these rules are, they do not tell you, but they become clear once you look at the moves of the UPU since 1871.
One other aspect needs to be taken into account: Money creation fuels inflation. However, industrial production fuels specialization and production maximization, or streamlining the process to it's optimum. This means that products over time decrease in value. Because optimization leads to a larger number of products in the market and thus, by supply and demand, a lower value.
You can appreciate from this that inflation is not easily achieved by money creation alone. And why is inflation important? Well, not to the average user. As an average user, you want prices to go down, or deflation, because with the same amount of money, you can buy more.
However, when you have a debt of say a 100 and every year inflation is 2%. In 30 years, how much is left of those 100? 2% times 30 is not the real answer, because inflation builds up over time. it is 2% over 2% over 2%, etc. It is called compounding. Meaning in the first year that 100 decreases in value of 2%. Nominally it still remains 100, but what you can buy with it decreases with 2%. The buying-power of the currency deceases. So, in the first year 100 -2% = 98. In the second year, 2% of 98 = 96.04. In the third: 2% of 96.04 = 94.12 etc.
In the total of those 30 years of 2% inflation a debt of 100 decreases to 54,54. Almost 46% decrease.
It can be easily appreciated how huge government debt over time is not a problem for the government, as it's value in the present is eroded over time. This is why you hear Central banks insist on creating inflation.
It is also easy to understand why deflation is a horrific idea to those governments in debt. In such a scenario, the debt would INCREASE in buying power.
It is also easy to see that the more you start to tinker with the concept of a free market where prices are set by the market, the more you need to control. Because now you want to "guide" the spending habits. First they will try this by regulation and taxation, excises, etc. By increasing the taxation, people will make different choices. Consider the imposition of taxes on fuel.
A second way for a government to impose itself on the habits of people, is by subsidy.
A third is by outright mandate or prohibition.
Now the circle is square and you are looking at the world of today. Welcome to 1984. .
Mind defining those acronyms?
You mean, you do not know what CCP, FRN EUR and US are?
I would wager that it is one or more of those.
BIS = Bank of International Settlements.
IMF = International Money FUND = special UN agency.
SDR = Special Drawing Rights = IMF currency = basket of currencies.
UPU = Universal Postal Union = established 1871 = special UN Agency.
EUR = Euro = currency used in Euro countries/ EU countries.
FRN = Federal Reserve Note = currency issued by the Federal Reserve posing under the name of USD.
Of course you can always consult wikipedia for a primer.
I think it’s more for BIS, SDR, and UPU
Nah I figured out the currency/country ones from context. You're an asshole if you think I don't know what CCP is lmao. It's mostly the stuff that got answered below. I'm no finance specialist. I'm not exactly in that tax bracket.
Very well written. Thank you.
It sounds like China would be in big trouble if the Dollar collapsed.
Interesting view. Why would you think that?
He stated that China is attempting to encourage/bribe the US into printing more money to coincide with China's printing more money so China has more room to print even more money to prop up their economy artificially. So if the Dollar falls, China won't be able to use this crutch anymore.
Just a side note: the summer before CV, I took a tour of the Fed Reserve in SF. They said at any given time 2/3rds of the cash in circulation is outside of the US. Part of this is because a number of countries accept US currency ad legitimate barter, but I wonder how much is where. It is one thing if you are Belize.
Only in relation to the Dollar. The trick in currency war is to allow your opponent to overextend itself.
Please, check what an SDR is, and what currencies are in there. Should the USD collapse against the other currencies in that basket, it would make only a splash, as it would be removed and replaced.
Then there is another dimension:
It is true China is holding around 1Trillion USD in bonds. In case of a collapse of the USD, that trillion is worthless.
However, all debts denominated in USD in China would be worthless as well. SO .... I dunno, it cancels each other out I guess.
That leaves the question of markets. In case of a collapse of the currency, chances are that such markets will not be available, unless more secure payment methods can be exacted. Under UCC there are ways to exact that. As a matter of fact: Germany, as a country, as in soil, was put a lien on in 1944, just prior to D-day.
In short, such "currency wars" are carefully scripted and nothing happens without the approval of the Post-office and the BIS. And China as the CCP is just as much a part of the Postal system as is the US.
Postal = banking = judicial = shipping = commerce. There is no denying that.