It’s far more likely they hit another submarine. Despite all the technology a lot of times it comes down to luck. Passive ranging of submerged contacts is extremely difficult even with our technology gap. All it takes is one turn that you don’t see and all of a sudden you are closing range.
Collisions or near collisions happen more than you think, especially at times like this. I would say the odds are high that we are operating more aggressively than usual. Minimum standoff ranges probably lower in exchange for better intel and tracking.
Wish I was still in. I would have read about this incident in real time on message traffic.
Look through your Cold War history books. Sub on sub collision is common. Absolutely this could be a Chinese sub. More likely actually. We would know where other people are.
Doesn’t even take that. Passive tracking is not like the movies. It’s extremely difficult and you are always operating with a fudge factor measured in the thousands.
For example, 99% of the time, range is reported as a whole number. 10k yards. 20k yards. Because we never actually know the real exact number using only passive measures. A lot of the time you are relying on gut feel for the relative motion you see on the screens in front of you.
It’s very very easy to miss one turn and close range for minutes without realizing it. Very easy. The longer you track the easier it is to make that mistake, it’s just mentally exhausting to do this while also managing surface contacts and communication obligations.
It’s far more likely they hit another submarine. Despite all the technology a lot of times it comes down to luck. Passive ranging of submerged contacts is extremely difficult even with our technology gap. All it takes is one turn that you don’t see and all of a sudden you are closing range.
Collisions or near collisions happen more than you think, especially at times like this. I would say the odds are high that we are operating more aggressively than usual. Minimum standoff ranges probably lower in exchange for better intel and tracking.
Wish I was still in. I would have read about this incident in real time on message traffic.
Could it have been a CCP sub???
Look through your Cold War history books. Sub on sub collision is common. Absolutely this could be a Chinese sub. More likely actually. We would know where other people are.
Musta done a "Crazy Ivan"...
Doesn’t even take that. Passive tracking is not like the movies. It’s extremely difficult and you are always operating with a fudge factor measured in the thousands.
For example, 99% of the time, range is reported as a whole number. 10k yards. 20k yards. Because we never actually know the real exact number using only passive measures. A lot of the time you are relying on gut feel for the relative motion you see on the screens in front of you.
It’s very very easy to miss one turn and close range for minutes without realizing it. Very easy. The longer you track the easier it is to make that mistake, it’s just mentally exhausting to do this while also managing surface contacts and communication obligations.
That son of a bitch went right around us...
how many fucking subs are down there though lol. The ocean is HUGE.
But I get it, they're operating around other subs likely on purpose to gather intel. Thanks for your knowledge.