It wasn't posted yet, so here it is. But as a biological research scientist I have to push back on how damning this may seem to someone who doesn't do this for a living.
A single sample mysteriously not working simply happens all the time. It's why you perform experiments in replicate and draw conclusions from the totality of data. His boss not caring about a single annecdotal failure is as unsurprising as this young scientists shock, or your shock. The reality of any scientific work is that samples do get mislabeled, mishandled, received incorrect reagents or otherwise encountered some gremlin along the way and this isn't what you expect when you first start out. But different people react differently, the cells that day may be more or less responsive .. you're working with such a complex set of variables you can't control for in biology that any number of things could throw off an otherwise typical range of results in these unfathomable ways.
The effort to track down the 'why' is often as fruitless when you figure it out as it more commonly is when you can never figure it out. Realistically, you never figure it out. Annomolies are a part of the game. Unless it's a systemic issue that repeats, it's best to just log the outlier, and allow the weight of numbers to work their magic.
You know all those error bars you see in those scientific papers you've all been reading up on? This is half of where they come from. It's not just variability in result, but honest inclusion of single point outliers that can't be explained.
I know your reaction at this point is that, "maybe the reason it didn't work is really important" and you're right. But your time matters and you can't follow every odd result, you just can't. Oddities are a weekly occurance and tracking them down will take a month of fruitlessness resulting in as much confusion as when you started. There needs to be more; a pattern, a genuine explanation... or as we say in the biz, a "testable hypothesis" before you decide to jump down one of these wild goose rabbit holes.
So this vid is a big nothing, regardless of how damning everything else is.
If there was only a single example of a vax not working in a lab that is understandable. But we dont know if it was one, many,or several batches.
There is also the fact that in most cases we are not talking about something that they are wanting to mandate for every living human to have to take part in.
I dont see a scenario where validating the outliers root cause is fruitless given the scale and potential implications. This is afterall a pandemic. The one thing they are telling everyone is how safe and effective these vaccines are. Having some vaccines that are not and not caring why would lead to loss of life.
But we dont know if it was one, many,or several batches.
You're right. We don't. But only because I don't believe the data hasn't been fraudulently manufactured. At face value we do know the efficacy in totality.
And I get that you don't get why ignoring a negative outcome is fruitless, but it is. Where there is a pattern, or an explanation to explore, sure. In that case you have a testable hypothesis. Something falsifiable to pursue. But without that you've got nothing to work from. You stick it in the back of your head to wonder about, and if an explanation or pattern does develop you jump on it. But one failed experiment? No.
And the other reason for no is that this happens all the time. And not because the scientists are bad or don't know what they are doing, but because that's the absolute nature of front line science. Biological science in particular is a great example of this too. There are so many complex systems interacting that it's impossible to control for them all. People are going to have different health states, genetics, diets and other outwards presenting differences that you try desperately to control for, as well as undetectable differences in their blood sugar at that moment, where in their circadian rythm they are, different liver and adrenal levels, and organ by organ differences in celular expression that you can never in a hundred years even know to want to control for let alone the ability to.
Experiments just fail. They don't work the way you expect. A normal positive experiment can often have an inexplicable outlier that you can never repeat. And you'll waste an eternity trying to get to the bottom of your weekly odd result. So this confuses you, and confuses this newly minted pfizer scientist, but it doesn't confuse me or the pfizer boss.
Until you have a pattern or a testable explanation, you have to accept the 'L' and let power of statistics do it's job.
I totally understand. I just dont see how not attempting to find the root cause and trying to repeat it should be automatically a no, specific to the case of the Covid vaccines.
Given the scale, every outlier that cannot be explained could mean thousands of deaths.
There is definately more information needed. I hope there is a full video release later that will add some info. At the very least this needs investigated thoroughly to ensure no one was cutting corners to get approvals.
I suspect you didn't read it. Or you skimmed it. Or you turned your brain off and never honestly considered anything I wrote because you're not of an inclination to ever have your mind changed unless you want it to be.
It is plenty though. One outlier is absolutely a nothing burger. It's such a common thing. I don't even understand what you're imagining that could make this a big deal.
We know the efficacy numbers for the vaccine are pointless when there's a 99.8% survival rate (even higher if you don't have two or more comorbidities).
P.S. You need to let the power of grammar do its job, and then you won't need to let the "power of statistics do it is job."
But as an aside, English is a retarded language and I don't sweat the rote memorization.
IT'S makes perfect sense to me. John's job. Caleb's Job. It's job.
"But that's not how we do things." Fuck your convention, my mind is wired by logic, not backwards tradition. Seriosuly if dinging someone on one spelling error thousands deep, maybe you need to rethink how strong your assertions really are. It's not like I have red squigglies to help me when I'm firing these quickly written walls of text out.
As for for your only meaningful critique - the efficacy numbers and the survival rate, I agree with you. The vaccine is dumb. There's no point to it. But then, there's no point to you noting that because it doesn't contradict any of my assertions or support any of yours.
The vaccine hijacks one's cellular machinery and turns it into a spike protein factory and you're a gigantic faggot for even arguing in support of "science."
I'm a faggot for arguing in support of science (?)
Congrats, that's the dumbest thing I've heard in a decade. Maybe #2 in my whole life. You've beat out all the liberals. Absolutely amazing. I should mail you a trophy.
Just because the vaccine is horse shit, and scientists are responsible for farbricating the data and peddling it to the public doesn't mean that SCIENCE is at fault. By that logic you must also condemn all of christianity because a couple priests decided to stick their dicks of the assholes of small boys.
As for me, I just the value of christianity on it's unperverted principles, much like I judge science on it's unperverted principles. And as I have explained, experiments return inexplicable outliers all the time, so it isn't unusual or in error to tally those outliers, shrug your shoulders, and work from the summation of all data rather than chasing every wild goose that waddles by.
Did you listen to the video? Subject took the vax TWICE.
While the probability of it not working twice is there, is it not fucking astronomical given the high efficacy? He also said NO ANTIBODIES, not low. What are the odds? very unlikely? If the experiment is not on 10k+ people what are the odds for that no antibodies unicorn?
And why wouldn't you assumes he knew what you are spewing? why would you assume his boss wouldn't explain what you are spewing to this scientist?
Does the way he tell his story matches up with statistical anomalies? the way he viewed his boss response? How hard is it for the boss to simply say "statistical anomalies"?
Or maybe its a web of lies? That the best scientific minds are rejected from the education system and you are unfortunately selected not foremost for your intelligence after all.
The effort to track down the 'why' is often as fruitless when you figure it out as it more commonly is when you can never figure it out.
The above can be excused for an engineer, but it is the greatest sin a scientist can say.
Because it can be a clerical issue. Or it can be the batch vial, or some weird shit to do with the individual. There's no value in chasing an outlier.
And why wouldn't you assumes he knew what you are spewing? why would you assume his boss wouldn't explain what you are spewing to this scientist?
Because I have trained a ton of interns and I have heard all this before. Because I've been there before. Before I've witnessed countess inexplicables which clued me in to the complexity of the systems we interact with and the results of my own investigations.
Does the way he tell his story matches up with statistical anomalies? the way he viewed his boss response?
Yes it does. Absolutely what I would expect in both their reactions. He's literally describing his first experiment. Dude couldn't be more green. He's as clueless and bewildered as you are. Welcome to science. Welcome to BIOLOGICAL science. It is absurdly complex and hubris is not served in the field.
How hard is it for the boss to simply say "statistical anomalies"?
Not hard at all. But much harder for the dude to internalize it. He's telling a story and trying to build up his confusion, he's not going to provide his date with his bosses position, just his apathy. I guarantee you his boss explained why you don't go chasing one weird result.
I don't want this to just be an appeal to authority but I don't know why this isn't clicking with you.
Or maybe its a web of lies? That the best scientific minds are rejected from the education system and you are unfortunately selected not foremost for your intelligence after all.
Lol, ok bud.
It's grades and test scores. The best scientific minds aren't bombing their SATs.
The above can be excused for an engineer, but it is the greatest sin a scientist can say.
No it's not. Feel free spending months fruitlessly trying to figure out every weekly anomaly and see where that gets you. If you don't have a falsifiable hypothesis to test, you have no where to go. As I said, you wait for a pattern or a falsifiable explanation to test. But until then you just take the L and keep going.
it is absurdly complex and hubris is not served in the field.
Address my question what are the probably of finding ZERO antibodies in a subject after injecting the vax TWICE?
Assuming an appropriate sample size where such outliers can be discarded. How big would that sample size be on average GIVEN the high effectiveness stated by pfizer?
You are unfortunately selected not foremost for your intelligence after all.
Not even an insult if your hubris is under control. It was a test you failed dummy. It's ok you are on here at least so you aren't an enemy combatant.
Most people are science illiterate. I understand your point the whole time dummy, never disagreed merely pointed out the forest for you. Sit and think, you were used my friend.
When you have the time from a fellow scientist Mike Yeadon
Address my question what are the probably of finding ZERO antibodies in a subject after injecting the vax TWICE?
Totally possible. Likely even. It could be a clerical error and was never administered, the vial could have been switched, the batch could have been left out and gone bad, or been missing a stabilizing reagent on it's creation, or the antibody test was fouled up for of a hundred different reasons. The administrating nurse could have misread her protocol and treated patient #xxx as a placebo when they were actually assigned to the vaccine. There are a thousand different explanations for this. Anomalies are routine in complex systems. And you don't go wasting your time hunting down a thousand different possibilities for your single odd annecdote that week. Even if the patient was delivered the actual vaccine and biologically she's just weird - she's an efficacy outlier not a toxicity outlier. You add her result into the mix and you get your high level amalgamate efficacy percentage.
Now if there's a PATTERN develops you hunt it down, but otherwise you look at your one outlier, your thousand normal results, and you move on. You can always circle back but your time is better served elsewhere. When your novice junior scientist comes to you and says this one patient makes no sense, they are completely negative, no antibodies no nothing, YES, you shrug your shoulders and move on.
Assuming an appropriate sample size where such outliers can be discarded. How big would that sample size be on average GIVEN the high effectiveness stated by pfizer?
Piss on pfizer's efficacy numbers. They straight up fabricate data. They aren't getting their bullshit numbers by errantly ignoring outliers. It comes from high level stat juking - you know, the kind where you count deaths within 14 days of of vaccination as 'uinvaccinated'. That kind of malfeasance. Pfizer is bullshit, the vaccine is bullshit, their top people should hang, but this one pfizer boss shrugging his shoulders at an anomaly has nothing to do with any of that. Your warranted general anger and skepticism is misplaced IN THIS CASE.
You are unfortunately selected not foremost for your intelligence after all.
Plenty of scientists are fucking retarded because they are ONLY selected for their intelligence. But your assertion that they AREN'T selected for their intelligence is flat out wrong.
This idea that your plumber down the street (or you) would make a better scientist could be true, but likely is not. I've met plenty of smart motherfuckers without high degrees. But if they can't do math and bomb their SATs because they are academically lazy and couldn't be bothered to pay attention in HS they definately aren't going to succeed in a curriculum more demanding that the one in HS they got C's on. And even more importantly:
--------- (and I desperately need you to appreciate this) -------------
You think your annecdotal level problem soving translates - this pipe seems weird, how do I resolve this isolated instance - but it doesn't. You need to work abstractly and to find the predictive truth from the complex and imperfect data. Non scientists think scientific data is clean. But it's not. It's a mess. You're investigating messy compex systems with a slew of variables you can't control for. Particularly in Biology. You have interns that fuck shit up, nurses that don't pay attention, some asshole that left a bottle out, and that's before you even get to the headache of cell cultures behaving differently today than they did yesterday, and the reality that the same human being is broadly differently proteomically in the morning than they are in the evening, let alone two DIFFERENT people. You and your lab can be the most careful and stringent possible and you will STILL, ALWAYS end up with anomalies that you wil never in a thousand days track down because the tiniest most minute thing which may not even be under your control can throw things off wildly. You have to toss your hubris and go high level, rise above the inexplicables and let the anomaly take it's place in the noise to derive predictive truth from. You will not get there by trying to hammer down every loose nail until you finally arrive at a perfect system - you will never ever get there. I speak from my and every other scientist's experience in what actually works. This is a fact of reality, not an erronious dogma of an arrogant preiesthood.
--------- (I desperately need you to appreciate this)-------------
Here's an example of your sort of novice thinking not translating
Gregor Mendel, the monk that worked with pea plants and discovered hereditary trait inheritance and pioneered the dominant/recessive thinking that was at the forefront of developing the line of investigation that would lead to genetics... that guy... remember him?
He fabricated his data.
He knew he was on to something but he ended up with all these anomalous results. He planted his plots, did his cross polination noted the results... and fuck, they were usually close but then this plot or that was way off. One plot may have even given the opposite result from what he predicted it should. Inexplicable! So he faked the numbers. We've know the genetics now, and have done the math on his extensive 'recorded' results and the probability of them being so perfect is near impossible. We understand statistics, and he didn't.
If he had understood statistics (or reasonably believed that the readers of his work did) he wouldn't have felt the need to do what he did. But like you, and like all green as fuck scientists, he felt things had to be clean. He was needlessly perturbed by his inexplicable results because he (like you) fail to appreciate just how common they are in complex systems and that the solution is statistics and not wild goose chases looking for meaning where ABSENT A PATTERN none is likely to exist. Thank god he didn't spend years delaying his publication while he tried in vain to find a reason for those endlessly unavoidable anomolies where none existed... but novices thiking like you think would.
In his case he committed the sin of lying. In your case you want to ascribie meaning where none is evidenced and waste time that isn't warranted. Sorry, but your fantasy of having a better mind for science than scientists like myself or the pfizer boss is straight wrong. You could get there, but in your case you're the sort of intern that would need years of frustrating failures before you accepted reality for what it is rather than what you want it to be -- and you wouldn't be alone in that regard. Junior phizer scientist is right there with you in that journey.
When you have the time from a fellow scientist Mike Yeadon
You're arguing a strawman, I've sent that same interview to friends and others. Why would you think I haven't watched or don't disagree with him?? You think I'm pro pfizer or pro vaccine or something??
I understand your point the whole time dummy
You clearly don't. Seeing as how I've had to explain the same thing three times now and you're still stuck on the basic premise that anomalous results are routine and uninteresting within complex systems. You are stuck on how interesting it would be if your preferred explanation of the result were true, while ignorign how unlikely it is, all the alternatives, and the low value/cost proposition of chasing that red herring.
I grew up around 140 iq minimum classmates, many of them turned out to be scientists.
Many of them are quite competent and are certainly dummies. Why are you saying things that I never said, indicated, or gave reason to infer I'm thinking?
This is why I called you a dummy. Instead of thinking I'm trying to undermine you or your qualifications. Could it be I was merely testing and adding to you?
And if you truly believe scientist are selected foremost for intelligence you must have never heard of global warming...
Gregor Mendel was a bad scientist by definition but a brilliant man. Actually consider: Does almost brilliant people make the best scientists? Does the most brilliant attempt innovation or do they spend years trying to verify what they know to be true?
I happen to be closely aligned with Taleb Nassim views on complex systems. And like most other engineers, I usually care more about inputs and outputs than the details within a system. However nothing is too complex only incomprehensible to the human mind, if something cant be described or mapped within a reasonable amount of time you just put a black box around it and record the input/output and use it that way until a scientist figures it out. (this is a joke, we know you won't, engineers are smarter than scientists cause they don't have to rely on grants and can become wealthy)
And you should listen to Mike Yeadon again, he sense with his guts and wisdom in addition to his intelligence.
I never share Mike with any non professionals, because Mike himself knows he's ineffective. Guess how many professional actually listen and follow through the whole interview? none. I feel you haven't truly heard Mike Y either.
Side note, it's good to be a dummy what is wrong with you? If you think you know when you don't know, you will never know. If you know and pretend you don't know sometimes you learn new variations or interesting angles.
That guy Nick Karl thought he found a unicorn and his boss isn't the least interested. That's a red flag, I don't care if you are just like that, it just mean there's a red flag on you. (this is an assumption, needs verification)
Companies likes to hire young minds for a reason, and they mostly keep the old boring minds around to make sure the new ones stick to the same standard of boring so communication and teamwork can occur. Stop shitting on the young, they have to fight against the shits we've allowed to occur. (another joke, professionals are usually overworked and overwhelmed [on purpose?] to do much)
Well not me, I tried to resist and was ostracized. But my life's still pretty interesting and I'm doing pretty good right now. And hey listen to some sadhguru it'll do you good. Watch when you feel good and have time.
It wasn't posted yet, so here it is. But as a biological research scientist I have to push back on how damning this may seem to someone who doesn't do this for a living.
A single sample mysteriously not working simply happens all the time. It's why you perform experiments in replicate and draw conclusions from the totality of data. His boss not caring about a single annecdotal failure is as unsurprising as this young scientists shock, or your shock. The reality of any scientific work is that samples do get mislabeled, mishandled, received incorrect reagents or otherwise encountered some gremlin along the way and this isn't what you expect when you first start out. But different people react differently, the cells that day may be more or less responsive .. you're working with such a complex set of variables you can't control for in biology that any number of things could throw off an otherwise typical range of results in these unfathomable ways.
The effort to track down the 'why' is often as fruitless when you figure it out as it more commonly is when you can never figure it out. Realistically, you never figure it out. Annomolies are a part of the game. Unless it's a systemic issue that repeats, it's best to just log the outlier, and allow the weight of numbers to work their magic.
You know all those error bars you see in those scientific papers you've all been reading up on? This is half of where they come from. It's not just variability in result, but honest inclusion of single point outliers that can't be explained.
I know your reaction at this point is that, "maybe the reason it didn't work is really important" and you're right. But your time matters and you can't follow every odd result, you just can't. Oddities are a weekly occurance and tracking them down will take a month of fruitlessness resulting in as much confusion as when you started. There needs to be more; a pattern, a genuine explanation... or as we say in the biz, a "testable hypothesis" before you decide to jump down one of these wild goose rabbit holes.
So this vid is a big nothing, regardless of how damning everything else is.
If there was only a single example of a vax not working in a lab that is understandable. But we dont know if it was one, many,or several batches.
There is also the fact that in most cases we are not talking about something that they are wanting to mandate for every living human to have to take part in.
I dont see a scenario where validating the outliers root cause is fruitless given the scale and potential implications. This is afterall a pandemic. The one thing they are telling everyone is how safe and effective these vaccines are. Having some vaccines that are not and not caring why would lead to loss of life.
You're right. We don't. But only because I don't believe the data hasn't been fraudulently manufactured. At face value we do know the efficacy in totality.
And I get that you don't get why ignoring a negative outcome is fruitless, but it is. Where there is a pattern, or an explanation to explore, sure. In that case you have a testable hypothesis. Something falsifiable to pursue. But without that you've got nothing to work from. You stick it in the back of your head to wonder about, and if an explanation or pattern does develop you jump on it. But one failed experiment? No.
And the other reason for no is that this happens all the time. And not because the scientists are bad or don't know what they are doing, but because that's the absolute nature of front line science. Biological science in particular is a great example of this too. There are so many complex systems interacting that it's impossible to control for them all. People are going to have different health states, genetics, diets and other outwards presenting differences that you try desperately to control for, as well as undetectable differences in their blood sugar at that moment, where in their circadian rythm they are, different liver and adrenal levels, and organ by organ differences in celular expression that you can never in a hundred years even know to want to control for let alone the ability to.
Experiments just fail. They don't work the way you expect. A normal positive experiment can often have an inexplicable outlier that you can never repeat. And you'll waste an eternity trying to get to the bottom of your weekly odd result. So this confuses you, and confuses this newly minted pfizer scientist, but it doesn't confuse me or the pfizer boss.
Until you have a pattern or a testable explanation, you have to accept the 'L' and let power of statistics do it's job.
I totally understand. I just dont see how not attempting to find the root cause and trying to repeat it should be automatically a no, specific to the case of the Covid vaccines.
Given the scale, every outlier that cannot be explained could mean thousands of deaths.
There is definately more information needed. I hope there is a full video release later that will add some info. At the very least this needs investigated thoroughly to ensure no one was cutting corners to get approvals.
I just told you why several times.
I suspect you didn't read it. Or you skimmed it. Or you turned your brain off and never honestly considered anything I wrote because you're not of an inclination to ever have your mind changed unless you want it to be.
No, I understand what you wrote and it was an excellent explanation. I was not attempting to challenge your knowledge.
There is not enough information to say if what is in the video is.of great importance or if it is a nothing burger.
It is plenty though. One outlier is absolutely a nothing burger. It's such a common thing. I don't even understand what you're imagining that could make this a big deal.
There could be more than one instance, there could be many. There could be more tests conducted by others that have had the same result.
There is not enough information to know either way from the video. Not saying there is other info, but if there is we dont have it.
We know the efficacy numbers for the vaccine are pointless when there's a 99.8% survival rate (even higher if you don't have two or more comorbidities).
P.S. You need to let the power of grammar do its job, and then you won't need to let the "power of statistics do it is job."
Also, rhythm is not spelled rythm, you big dummy.
Where do you think, "yeah but you spelled this word wrong" falls?
But as an aside, English is a retarded language and I don't sweat the rote memorization.
IT'S makes perfect sense to me. John's job. Caleb's Job. It's job.
"But that's not how we do things." Fuck your convention, my mind is wired by logic, not backwards tradition. Seriosuly if dinging someone on one spelling error thousands deep, maybe you need to rethink how strong your assertions really are. It's not like I have red squigglies to help me when I'm firing these quickly written walls of text out.
As for for your only meaningful critique - the efficacy numbers and the survival rate, I agree with you. The vaccine is dumb. There's no point to it. But then, there's no point to you noting that because it doesn't contradict any of my assertions or support any of yours.
The vaccine hijacks one's cellular machinery and turns it into a spike protein factory and you're a gigantic faggot for even arguing in support of "science."
I'm a faggot for arguing in support of science (?)
Congrats, that's the dumbest thing I've heard in a decade. Maybe #2 in my whole life. You've beat out all the liberals. Absolutely amazing. I should mail you a trophy.
Just because the vaccine is horse shit, and scientists are responsible for farbricating the data and peddling it to the public doesn't mean that SCIENCE is at fault. By that logic you must also condemn all of christianity because a couple priests decided to stick their dicks of the assholes of small boys.
As for me, I just the value of christianity on it's unperverted principles, much like I judge science on it's unperverted principles. And as I have explained, experiments return inexplicable outliers all the time, so it isn't unusual or in error to tally those outliers, shrug your shoulders, and work from the summation of all data rather than chasing every wild goose that waddles by.
Whatever.
Did you listen to the video? Subject took the vax TWICE.
While the probability of it not working twice is there, is it not fucking astronomical given the high efficacy? He also said NO ANTIBODIES, not low. What are the odds? very unlikely? If the experiment is not on 10k+ people what are the odds for that no antibodies unicorn?
And why wouldn't you assumes he knew what you are spewing? why would you assume his boss wouldn't explain what you are spewing to this scientist?
Does the way he tell his story matches up with statistical anomalies? the way he viewed his boss response? How hard is it for the boss to simply say "statistical anomalies"?
Or maybe its a web of lies? That the best scientific minds are rejected from the education system and you are unfortunately selected not foremost for your intelligence after all.
The above can be excused for an engineer, but it is the greatest sin a scientist can say.
Because it can be a clerical issue. Or it can be the batch vial, or some weird shit to do with the individual. There's no value in chasing an outlier.
Because I have trained a ton of interns and I have heard all this before. Because I've been there before. Before I've witnessed countess inexplicables which clued me in to the complexity of the systems we interact with and the results of my own investigations.
Yes it does. Absolutely what I would expect in both their reactions. He's literally describing his first experiment. Dude couldn't be more green. He's as clueless and bewildered as you are. Welcome to science. Welcome to BIOLOGICAL science. It is absurdly complex and hubris is not served in the field.
Not hard at all. But much harder for the dude to internalize it. He's telling a story and trying to build up his confusion, he's not going to provide his date with his bosses position, just his apathy. I guarantee you his boss explained why you don't go chasing one weird result.
I don't want this to just be an appeal to authority but I don't know why this isn't clicking with you.
Lol, ok bud.
It's grades and test scores. The best scientific minds aren't bombing their SATs.
No it's not. Feel free spending months fruitlessly trying to figure out every weekly anomaly and see where that gets you. If you don't have a falsifiable hypothesis to test, you have no where to go. As I said, you wait for a pattern or a falsifiable explanation to test. But until then you just take the L and keep going.
Your hubris is showing. Haha nice joke.
Address my question what are the probably of finding ZERO antibodies in a subject after injecting the vax TWICE?
Assuming an appropriate sample size where such outliers can be discarded. How big would that sample size be on average GIVEN the high effectiveness stated by pfizer?
Not even an insult if your hubris is under control. It was a test you failed dummy. It's ok you are on here at least so you aren't an enemy combatant.
Most people are science illiterate. I understand your point the whole time dummy, never disagreed merely pointed out the forest for you. Sit and think, you were used my friend.
When you have the time from a fellow scientist Mike Yeadon
Totally possible. Likely even. It could be a clerical error and was never administered, the vial could have been switched, the batch could have been left out and gone bad, or been missing a stabilizing reagent on it's creation, or the antibody test was fouled up for of a hundred different reasons. The administrating nurse could have misread her protocol and treated patient #xxx as a placebo when they were actually assigned to the vaccine. There are a thousand different explanations for this. Anomalies are routine in complex systems. And you don't go wasting your time hunting down a thousand different possibilities for your single odd annecdote that week. Even if the patient was delivered the actual vaccine and biologically she's just weird - she's an efficacy outlier not a toxicity outlier. You add her result into the mix and you get your high level amalgamate efficacy percentage.
Now if there's a PATTERN develops you hunt it down, but otherwise you look at your one outlier, your thousand normal results, and you move on. You can always circle back but your time is better served elsewhere. When your novice junior scientist comes to you and says this one patient makes no sense, they are completely negative, no antibodies no nothing, YES, you shrug your shoulders and move on.
Piss on pfizer's efficacy numbers. They straight up fabricate data. They aren't getting their bullshit numbers by errantly ignoring outliers. It comes from high level stat juking - you know, the kind where you count deaths within 14 days of of vaccination as 'uinvaccinated'. That kind of malfeasance. Pfizer is bullshit, the vaccine is bullshit, their top people should hang, but this one pfizer boss shrugging his shoulders at an anomaly has nothing to do with any of that. Your warranted general anger and skepticism is misplaced IN THIS CASE.
Plenty of scientists are fucking retarded because they are ONLY selected for their intelligence. But your assertion that they AREN'T selected for their intelligence is flat out wrong.
This idea that your plumber down the street (or you) would make a better scientist could be true, but likely is not. I've met plenty of smart motherfuckers without high degrees. But if they can't do math and bomb their SATs because they are academically lazy and couldn't be bothered to pay attention in HS they definately aren't going to succeed in a curriculum more demanding that the one in HS they got C's on. And even more importantly:
--------- (and I desperately need you to appreciate this) -------------
You think your annecdotal level problem soving translates - this pipe seems weird, how do I resolve this isolated instance - but it doesn't. You need to work abstractly and to find the predictive truth from the complex and imperfect data. Non scientists think scientific data is clean. But it's not. It's a mess. You're investigating messy compex systems with a slew of variables you can't control for. Particularly in Biology. You have interns that fuck shit up, nurses that don't pay attention, some asshole that left a bottle out, and that's before you even get to the headache of cell cultures behaving differently today than they did yesterday, and the reality that the same human being is broadly differently proteomically in the morning than they are in the evening, let alone two DIFFERENT people. You and your lab can be the most careful and stringent possible and you will STILL, ALWAYS end up with anomalies that you wil never in a thousand days track down because the tiniest most minute thing which may not even be under your control can throw things off wildly. You have to toss your hubris and go high level, rise above the inexplicables and let the anomaly take it's place in the noise to derive predictive truth from. You will not get there by trying to hammer down every loose nail until you finally arrive at a perfect system - you will never ever get there. I speak from my and every other scientist's experience in what actually works. This is a fact of reality, not an erronious dogma of an arrogant preiesthood.
--------- (I desperately need you to appreciate this)-------------
Here's an example of your sort of novice thinking not translating
Gregor Mendel, the monk that worked with pea plants and discovered hereditary trait inheritance and pioneered the dominant/recessive thinking that was at the forefront of developing the line of investigation that would lead to genetics... that guy... remember him?
He fabricated his data.
He knew he was on to something but he ended up with all these anomalous results. He planted his plots, did his cross polination noted the results... and fuck, they were usually close but then this plot or that was way off. One plot may have even given the opposite result from what he predicted it should. Inexplicable! So he faked the numbers. We've know the genetics now, and have done the math on his extensive 'recorded' results and the probability of them being so perfect is near impossible. We understand statistics, and he didn't.
If he had understood statistics (or reasonably believed that the readers of his work did) he wouldn't have felt the need to do what he did. But like you, and like all green as fuck scientists, he felt things had to be clean. He was needlessly perturbed by his inexplicable results because he (like you) fail to appreciate just how common they are in complex systems and that the solution is statistics and not wild goose chases looking for meaning where ABSENT A PATTERN none is likely to exist. Thank god he didn't spend years delaying his publication while he tried in vain to find a reason for those endlessly unavoidable anomolies where none existed... but novices thiking like you think would.
In his case he committed the sin of lying. In your case you want to ascribie meaning where none is evidenced and waste time that isn't warranted. Sorry, but your fantasy of having a better mind for science than scientists like myself or the pfizer boss is straight wrong. You could get there, but in your case you're the sort of intern that would need years of frustrating failures before you accepted reality for what it is rather than what you want it to be -- and you wouldn't be alone in that regard. Junior phizer scientist is right there with you in that journey.
You're arguing a strawman, I've sent that same interview to friends and others. Why would you think I haven't watched or don't disagree with him?? You think I'm pro pfizer or pro vaccine or something??
You clearly don't. Seeing as how I've had to explain the same thing three times now and you're still stuck on the basic premise that anomalous results are routine and uninteresting within complex systems. You are stuck on how interesting it would be if your preferred explanation of the result were true, while ignorign how unlikely it is, all the alternatives, and the low value/cost proposition of chasing that red herring.
I grew up around 140 iq minimum classmates, many of them turned out to be scientists.
Many of them are quite competent and are certainly dummies. Why are you saying things that I never said, indicated, or gave reason to infer I'm thinking?
This is why I called you a dummy. Instead of thinking I'm trying to undermine you or your qualifications. Could it be I was merely testing and adding to you?
And if you truly believe scientist are selected foremost for intelligence you must have never heard of global warming...
Gregor Mendel was a bad scientist by definition but a brilliant man. Actually consider: Does almost brilliant people make the best scientists? Does the most brilliant attempt innovation or do they spend years trying to verify what they know to be true?
I happen to be closely aligned with Taleb Nassim views on complex systems. And like most other engineers, I usually care more about inputs and outputs than the details within a system. However nothing is too complex only incomprehensible to the human mind, if something cant be described or mapped within a reasonable amount of time you just put a black box around it and record the input/output and use it that way until a scientist figures it out. (this is a joke, we know you won't, engineers are smarter than scientists cause they don't have to rely on grants and can become wealthy)
And you should listen to Mike Yeadon again, he sense with his guts and wisdom in addition to his intelligence.
I never share Mike with any non professionals, because Mike himself knows he's ineffective. Guess how many professional actually listen and follow through the whole interview? none. I feel you haven't truly heard Mike Y either.
Side note, it's good to be a dummy what is wrong with you? If you think you know when you don't know, you will never know. If you know and pretend you don't know sometimes you learn new variations or interesting angles.
That guy Nick Karl thought he found a unicorn and his boss isn't the least interested. That's a red flag, I don't care if you are just like that, it just mean there's a red flag on you. (this is an assumption, needs verification)
Companies likes to hire young minds for a reason, and they mostly keep the old boring minds around to make sure the new ones stick to the same standard of boring so communication and teamwork can occur. Stop shitting on the young, they have to fight against the shits we've allowed to occur. (another joke, professionals are usually overworked and overwhelmed [on purpose?] to do much)
Well not me, I tried to resist and was ostracized. But my life's still pretty interesting and I'm doing pretty good right now. And hey listen to some sadhguru it'll do you good. Watch when you feel good and have time.