posted ago by Retaining_H2O ago by Retaining_H2O +64 / -0

European countries now have only seven percent (7%) of their natural gas reserves and supplies from Russia have been almost completely halted. Russia's GAZPROM stopped taking orders for natural gas transit through Ukraine (which almost all goes to Europe) on February 18.

Russia WILL shut down the gas pipes, likely within the week. With only 7% gas reserves, Europe will run out of gas within about two weeks. That will shut down some of their electrical generation. Some countries will be better off than others, but what it means is that most nations in Europe will lose about 25% to 35% of their electricity while the gas is shut off.

Remember when Germany permanently shut down eight of its 17 reactors and pledged to close the rest by the end of 2022? In late 2021 all but six of the remaining German nuclear power plants were shut down. In early 2022, Germany closed 3 of its newest and best nuclear power plants producing more than 4050 MW of electricity. That's the energy equivalent of powering all of Denmark. In very late 2022, Germany closed the last 3 nuclear power plants, also 4000 MW. Germany wanted renewables to account for 80% of it's power mix by 2030. They are making good progress, because renewables now makes up about 44.6% to 50% (solar, wind turbines, hydroelectric, biomass, etc...). Natural Gas makes up about 25% of Germany's energy mix. Coal makes up roughly 22%. If Russia shuts off the gas, Germany loses about 25% of electric generation capacity. That may mean rolling blackouts, electricity rationing or even some industry shutdowns. It's not a catastrophe, but it's not good either.

France and Italy uses Russian gas for less than 25% of their electricity. The U.K., Ireland and Spain don't rely at all on Russian gas.

The nations who will hurt are: Poland, Austria, Greece, Slovakia and Slovenia, which rely on Russian gas for between 50% and 75% of their electricity.

The nations that will REALLY be hurt are: Sweden, Finland, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, which rely on Russian gas for nearly 100% of their electricity. If Russia shuts off the gas, those nations go dark and everything comes to a halt.

Of course, Russia may be able to direct the gas to these nations as it pleases... but only if they remain neutral or follow Russia's program on Ukraine. It will be interesting to see how the different nations cope with the possibility of Russian gas being cut off completely.